GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-01-04 09:58Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Views - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the New Year period in 2026 exceeded 3.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, while international flight bookings surpassed 740,000, up 14% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [1][2] - The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector under the themes of "expanding domestic demand" and "anti-involution" [2][12] - In the oil shipping sector, attention is drawn to the support for freight rates during the off-season and the timing of investments, particularly focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.70% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points [18] - The best-performing segments were air transportation and warehousing logistics, with increases of 5.14% and 0.41%, respectively [18][19] Travel - The report highlights the strong recovery in air travel demand, with a focus on the low growth rate of capacity supply and the continuous recovery of demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap [2][12] Shipping and Ports - Oil shipping rates have continued to decline, with VLCC market rates dropping to $34,158 per day as of December 31 [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping indices have also seen a decline, with the BDI index at 1,882 points on January 2, 2026 [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support for freight rates during the off-season and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on shipping logistics [15] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: 1. Expansion into overseas markets, with Jitu Express planning significant investments in new market operations [4][16] 2. The impact of anti-involution on the industry, where the growth rate is slowing due to increased competition and rising prices, leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies [4][17]