国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for urea is volatile, while the medium - term central price is expected to rise [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have improved temporarily, with the driving force being neutral to slightly strong, but the strength is limited. The subsequent upward movement of the driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (e.g., Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][9][15][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 392 million tons, and in 2025, it was 664 million tons. There are also plans for new capacity in 2026 [23] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026, including Yangmei Fengxi, Linggu Chemical, etc., with reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost) maintenance [25] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. Cost calculations are provided for Shanxi fixed - bed factories, including coal - related costs, ammonia, and urea [29] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, with charts showing the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production methods [34][35] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies tightened. Historical monthly export data from 2018 - 2025 (E) are provided, and there are also charts showing export profits and export quantities [39][40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different demand patterns according to crop types and growth stages. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [45][46][48] Industrial Rigid Demand - Compound Fertilizer: Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [52][53][54] - Melamine: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [57][58] - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, with relevant export and real - estate data presented [59][60] Inventory - On December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1019,200 tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week, a 4.65% month - on - month decrease. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 28.26% month - on - month increase [65] International Urea International Urea Price - Charts show the historical trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea from China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [69][70][72]