国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by macro factors and is expected to follow the overall trend of the energy - chemical sector. After the holiday, the weather in overseas main producing areas is expected to improve, increasing supply and weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises plan for short - term maintenance during the holiday and the spot inventory is continuously accumulating, the return of funds after the holiday and the impact of the external market during the holiday may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a 0.6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, with a 24% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The implementation details of the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy were released, expanding the scope of support [5][7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared to the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price - Related - Basis and Calendar Spread: The basis of whole milk - RU05 and the 05 - 09 calendar spread both increased, with a 26.04% and 100.00% increase respectively compared to the previous period [12]. - Other Spreads: Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased. The basis of non - standard rubber strengthened, and the spreads between whole milk - Thai mixed rubber and 3L - Thai mixed rubber expanded [17][20][23]. - Substitute Prices: The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, continued to rise, providing bottom support for the short - term market price [30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared to the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [33][35]. Fundamental Data - Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching the end, and the rainfall is decreasing. The rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [38][40]. - Raw Material Prices: Due to the缓解 of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices have fallen [42]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has expanded, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole milk factories has remained stable [46]. - Upstream Processing Profits: As raw material prices fall, the rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally improved [49]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit in Hainan has decreased, and the data in Yunnan has stopped updating due to the suspension of tapping [53]. - Exports: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - month due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China rebounded seasonally, with a large increase in standard rubber and latex exports. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased significantly [60][66][72]. - Imports: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a 25.98% increase month - on - month and a 14.76% increase year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. - Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some tire enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and the tire inventory continued to accumulate last week [81]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with an accelerated growth rate. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - month growth rate continued to decline. Tire exports improved slightly month - on - month [84]. - Road Transport Turnover: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transport rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. - Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The increase in Qingdao's inventory slowed down compared to the previous period, mainly due to a 7.8% decrease in the warehousing volume of sample warehouses and some tire enterprises' procurement before the festival. The inventory in Yunnan continued to accumulate [94]. - Futures Inventory: As of January 2, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 100,600 tons, a 7.09% increase compared to the previous week, and the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 58,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous week [100]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: As of December 31, there was no data on raw material prices in Thailand due to the holiday. The price of Hainan glue for whole milk production was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the price for concentrated latex production was also 15,000 yuan/ton. As of December 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.201 million tons, a 1.7% increase compared to the previous period [104]. - Demand: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and most enterprises maintained normal production, adjusting according to their own inventory and order situations [104]. - View: After the holiday, the supply in overseas main producing areas is expected to increase, weakening cost support. Although the downstream inventory is accumulating and enterprises are having maintenance, the return of funds and the external market impact may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger. The recommended strategies are to wait and see for RU and look for short - selling opportunities when the price is high, and to observe for cross - period and cross - variety trading [104][105].