粤开宏观：税收增速与经济增速的非同步性：当前中国税收低增长的原因、影响及应对

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2013, China's tax revenue growth has consistently lagged behind GDP growth, indicating a downward trend in tax revenue[2] - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has declined from 18.7% in 2012 to 13.0% in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2001[15] - The average annual growth rate of tax revenue from 2013 to 2023 is only 4.4%, significantly lower than the 20.3% from 2005 to 2012[20] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - The shift in China's economic development from supply shortages to demand insufficiency has significantly impacted tax revenue growth[22] - The transition from real estate-driven growth to new productive forces has created a mismatch between tax sources and revenue, leading to a decline in tax revenue growth[25] - The reliance on tax cuts and fee reductions has hindered the effectiveness of fiscal policies, resulting in a weak tax base expansion effect[30] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The tax system's design, characterized by overlapping taxation, exacerbates revenue volatility, especially during economic downturns[32] - The progressive nature of certain taxes can amplify revenue fluctuations, causing tax revenue to decline faster than economic value during downturns[34] - The existing tax structure has not adapted to the evolving economic landscape, particularly in the service and digital economy sectors, leading to further revenue challenges[28]