格林大华期货早盘提示-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, with geographical diversification starting to take effect. It is recommended to stay invested and strengthen diversified allocation [2]. - China's stock market cycle is transitioning from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. Corporate profits may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - In 2026, the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market is much higher than a significant fall, and there are multiple positive factors in the Chinese market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Morning Session Notice - Market Performance: On the last trading day before the holiday, some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance, causing adjustments in some indices. The aerospace sector rose again. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.04 trillion yuan with a moderate decline. The CSI 500 index closed at 7465 points, up 6 points (0.09%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7595 points, down 2 points (- 0.02%); the SSE 50 index closed at 3031 points, down 5 points (- 0.18%); and the CSI 300 index closed at 4629 points, down 21 points (- 0.46%). The funds in stock index futures of CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 5.4 billion, 4.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. - Sector and ETF Performance: Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETF, general aviation ETF, etc. led the gains, while dual - innovation ETF, energy - storage battery ETF, etc. led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, hotel catering, cloud gaming, etc. led the gains, and chemical fiber, communication equipment, etc. led the losses [1]. Important Information - Policy: The 'Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Updating and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026' was issued, and the 'Announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Launching the Pilot of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds' was released [1]. - Market Trends in 2025: The STAR 100 index rose 54.63%, the ChiNext index rose 49.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.87%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41%. The total market value of A - shares reached 118.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.30 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. Precious metal prices such as gold (+65%), silver (+148%), etc. rose significantly, and the number and overseas authorization transaction amount of approved innovative drugs in China reached record highs [1][2]. - Company News: TSMC's 2nm process was mass - produced as planned and its stock price hit a record high; Samsung Electronics' stock rose 7.2% due to the recognition of HBM4 products. Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased by 16% year - on - year, while BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased [1][2]. - International News: High - profile companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have high valuations. The US launched air strikes on Venezuela, and Venezuela declared a state of emergency [2]. Market Logic - Some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance on the last trading day before the holiday, causing index adjustments and a rise in the aerospace sector. High - end investment banks believe that global stock markets are in the 'optimistic stage' of a bull market, and the market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven. There was a net inflow of 83.1 billion US dollars into ETFs investing in Chinese assets in 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most foreign investment. The market expects insurance, wealth management, and pensions to be the incremental funds in 2026, and more international funds are looking at the AI track outside the US [2]. Future Outlook - China's stock market cycle is moving from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. The total scale of listed ETFs in the whole market increased by 56% in 2025. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a key area for global AI investment. The risk of a sharp rise in China's stock market in 2026 is higher than a sharp fall. Overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and the RMB is appreciating. All kinds of funds are expected to enter the market quickly [3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets on the first trading day of January. - For stock index option trading, open call options on the CSI 1000 index when the opportunity arises [3].