Changjiang Securities·2026-01-04 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy-duty truck sector [7]. Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy will support the replacement of old trucks with low-emission vehicles, prioritizing electric trucks, while maintaining the subsidy levels from 2025 [2][5]. - The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to benefit from continued domestic demand support and growth in exports, with a projected total sales volume of 1.06 million trucks in 2026, including 700,000 units from domestic demand [11]. - The report highlights the low valuation and high dividend yield of the heavy-duty truck sector, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors, with specific recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [11]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy will continue to support the replacement of old trucks, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles ranging from 12,000 to 45,000 yuan per vehicle, and new purchases of National VI diesel and electric trucks receiving subsidies of 40,000 to 65,000 yuan and 70,000 to 95,000 yuan respectively [11]. - The expected replacement rate of 20% for old vehicles could lead to an increase of 94,000 to 96,000 heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant trend towards higher battery capacities in new electric trucks, with 126 models exceeding 600 kWh, indicating a shift towards longer-distance applications [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks is projected to reach 30% in 2026, supported by differentiated subsidy policies [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the heavy-duty truck sector due to prior investments in new energy by domestic companies, alongside favorable market conditions [11]. - The overall low valuation and high dividend yield of the sector provide a good safety margin for investors, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11].