煤炭与消费用燃料行业周报：久违的煤价反弹力度如何？-20260105

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply contraction at year-end and marginal demand improvement, alongside strengthened policy support expectations. Despite high inventory levels and cautious purchasing attitudes from end-users, the price decline has a bottom, and there are opportunities for investment in the coal sector as insurance capital is expected to increase allocation to this sector at year-end [2][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.09 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries. The price of thermal coal as of December 31 was 678 RMB/ton, up by 6 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of December 30, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 6.116 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. The inventory at power plants was 135 million tons, down 0.3% week-on-week, with a usable days count of 22.0 days, a decrease of 0.1 days [17][35] Price Trends - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 678 RMB/ton as of December 31, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6 RMB/ton. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port remained stable at 1740 RMB/ton, while the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao port was 1530 RMB/ton, also stable week-on-week [6][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing the coal sector's bottom reversal trend, with stock selection strategies focusing on balanced approaches, leading companies, and those with elastic growth potential. Specific recommendations include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Huayang Co., among others [8][28]