渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.05）-20260105

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after 8 months, with improvements in both production and demand [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, attributed to reduced uncertainties from the external trade environment [3] - The new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, marking the first return to expansion in the second half of the year [3] - New export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, showing a significant slowdown in contraction, while the import index continued to contract [3] - The December non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, driven significantly by the construction sector [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7%, reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] - The outlook for January 2026 suggests continued expansion in manufacturing due to a stable external trade environment and the gradual implementation of incremental policies [4] U.S. Monetary Series - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is crucial for understanding changes in dollar liquidity, primarily through "bilateral accounting" methods [6][7] - The Fed's balance sheet has been in an expansion trend since its inception, influenced by economic development and institutional changes [7] - The historical changes in the Fed's balance sheet can be divided into four phases, with the most recent phase (2020-present) seeing accelerated expansion due to the pandemic [7] Financial Engineering Research - Company governance is identified as a critical component of corporate competitiveness, directly affecting resource allocation efficiency, profitability sustainability, and risk management [9] - A well-governed company enhances operational quality and market profitability expectations, leading to a steady increase in stock prices [9][10] - The report outlines six dimensions of corporate governance that impact stock pricing, including shareholder behavior, debt management, and ESG scores [10][11] - Future research will focus on the interaction effects of governance indicators, heterogeneity across different scenarios, and the development of a multidimensional governance evaluation system [11]