PMI超预期，债市震荡偏弱——12月PMI点评

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, both manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom - bust line. The new kinetic energy is supporting the manufacturing industry, but related industries may be more vulnerable to external demand fluctuations. The pace of new - old kinetic energy conversion is an important window to observe the economic recovery [2]. - The report expects long - term interest rates to fluctuate widely, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.8% - 1.9% and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 2.2% - 2.4% [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event Description - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.9pct to 50.1%, with the month - on - month increase expanding by 0.7pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index rebounded 0.7pct to 50.2%. The construction business activity index soared 3.2pct to 52.8%, and the service business activity index rebounded 0.2pct to 49.7% [5]. Event Comment Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing sector's return above the boom - bust line is in line with seasonal trends, led by construction. The improvement in new orders, inventory, and employment is driven by domestic demand, while new export orders declined. The profit margin may be compressed, and the sustainability of the improvement needs further observation. In construction, seasonal factors and high - growth financial activities may support the improvement. In services, the transmission of upstream manufacturing prosperity to downstream consumption remains to be seen [7]. Manufacturing Sector - New kinetic energy supports the manufacturing industry, but related industries are more susceptible to external demand. The high - frequency indicators have weakened, but the manufacturing industry improved due to the high - level prosperity of new kinetic energy industries. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate in specific ranges [7]. Other Aspects of Manufacturing - Manufacturing PMI continued to rise, with production, demand, and inventory all improving. External demand contributed to new orders, and the profit repair pressure may be reduced. Large and medium - sized enterprises and high - tech manufacturing showed better performance [9].