宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026年1月5日）-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].