宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日）-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations. Treasury bond futures are expected to be range - bound in the short term, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Wednesday, treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. The December manufacturing PMI released by the statistics bureau was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising into the expansion range. Strong macro data reduced the urgency of monetary policy easing, cooled interest rate cut expectations, and weakened the driving force for the rebound of treasury bond futures. However, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is still biased towards easing, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates still exists, and there are still expectations of future policy interest rate cuts, so treasury bond futures have strong support [5]