宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年1月5日）-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The positive factors have not subsided, but the supply remains high while the demand improvement is limited [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the positive factors remain, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holidays, international iron ore prices were weak. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to accumulate. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased from a low level. However, the improvement of steel mills' profitability was limited, and downstream demand was difficult to bear a significant production increase, restricting demand improvement. The relatively positive factor was steel mills' restocking. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continued to decline, while miners' shipments reached a new weekly high for the year, with overseas ore supply being active at the end of the year. Even though domestic ore supply shrank seasonally, the overall ore supply remained high. The positive factors supported the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply was high and demand improvement was limited, resulting in weak fundamentals and a lack of upward driving force. The ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be noted [3]