宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日）-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The core logic is that the thermal coal supply - demand pattern is improved due to the increase in heating demand. In January, the fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillating". The core logic is that the heating demand increases, improving the thermal coal supply - demand pattern [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillating". Before the New Year's Day, the thermal coal price was still weakening, and the decline rate slowed down after the cold air on the 24th and 25th. As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and then gradually stabilized this week. The coal price decline was due to high - level supply and unexpectedly weak demand. In January, although some shut - down coal mines on the supply side will resume production, downstream replenishment demand will be fulfilled due to the concentrated Spring Festival coal mine holidays. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase, driving power plant coal consumption to reach the annual peak. The fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound, and the subsequent power plant coal consumption trend should be focused on [4]