Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend, influenced by factors such as loose financial market liquidity in the US, mild policy stimulus in China, geopolitical disturbances, tight mine - end supply, and tariff expectations. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner, driven by high - priced precious metals and copper, relatively low overseas aluminum inventories, and supply - side disturbances. The expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the market returns to industrial reality, with rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand [8] - Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] - For lithium carbonate, short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] - Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] - Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: On the first trading day of 2026, LME copper prices rose first and then fell, closing at 12,460 dollars/ton, down 0.3% from before the domestic holiday. SHFE copper main contract closed at 98,240 yuan/ton before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 145,325 tons, and the cash/3M premium strengthened. Domestic pre - holiday SHFE weekly inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 145,000 tons, and daily warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons to 82,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong regions narrowed, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot decreased to 800 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,300 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Chile's copper production in November decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons [1] - Strategy View: With loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances, copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - Market Information: During the New Year's Day holiday, LME aluminum prices remained strong, closing at 3,021 dollars/ton, up 0.8%. SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,925 yuan/ton before the holiday. The pre - holiday weighted contract position of SHFE aluminum decreased by 7,000 to 666,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 82,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 210 yuan/ton, and the transaction was weak. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 to 509,000 tons, and the cash/3M discount narrowed to 24.9 dollars/ton [4] - Strategy View: Affected by overseas geopolitical factors, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. With high aluminum prices suppressing downstream production, but low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances, the expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] Lead - Market Information: Last Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.86% at 17,356 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 86,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME lead fell 1.02% to 1,994 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 76,800 tons. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged at 17,400 tons [7] - Strategy View: With rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [8] Zinc - Market Information: Last Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.43% at 23,305 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 195,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,300 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME zinc rose slightly by 0.34% to 3,127 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 106,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 8,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons [9] - Strategy View: Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] Tin - Market Information: On December 31, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 322,920 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi maintained a high - level operation, but there were problems such as low processing fees and shortage of raw materials. In terms of demand, although the downstream consumer electronics entered the off - season, the tin solder production and operation rate were stable supported by emerging industries. The spot market demand was weak, and the inventory increased for three consecutive weeks before decreasing [11] - Strategy View: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] Nickel - Market Information: On Wednesday, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel pig iron continued to rise [13] - Strategy View: Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On December 31, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 116,867 yuan, up 0.41% from the previous working day and down 3.35% for the week. The SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate CIF price increased by 2.65% for the week [17] - Strategy View: Short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - Market Information: On December 31, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.16% to 2,724 yuan/ton, and the single - side trading position decreased by 51,400 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,600 yuan/ton, at a discount of 178 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 308 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 83 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 156,900 tons. The CIF price of Guinea and Australia ore remained unchanged [20] - Strategy View: Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Wednesday afternoon, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The single - side position increased by 18,307 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices such as high - nickel pig iron rose, and the futures inventory decreased. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [23] - Strategy View: Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Before the New Year's Day holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy strengthened. The main AD2603 contract closed up 1.77% at 21,855 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased, and the trading volume decreased but remained at a relatively high level. The inventory of the SHFE increased, the domestic main market inventory decreased, and the factory inventory increased [26] - Strategy View: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26]
铜,铝：有色金属日报2026-1-5-20260105
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-05 01:25