海上观日：2026日本股市展望

Investment Focus - The Japanese stock market experienced a valuation expansion in 2025, with the Nikkei Stock Average closing at 50,339.48, marking a 26% annual gain, driven by global enthusiasm for generative AI, persistent inflation in Japan, and the ascension of the new Prime Minister [3][39]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates a return to an inflationary economy for Japan for the first time in three decades, with expectations of improved domestic demand and accelerated government and private investment [6][40]. Market Review - In 2025, the Japanese stock market outperformed the US Dow Jones Industrial Average for three consecutive years, with significant capital inflows following the election of the new Prime Minister [3][4]. - The market sentiment improved significantly after the new Prime Minister took office, leading to a bullish trend in the stock market, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 50,000 points [5][6]. Economic Policies - The new government under the Prime Minister has implemented a comprehensive economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen, with a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025 [10][11]. - The government plans to invest 8.9 trillion yen in measures to support living standards and address inflation, including direct cash transfers to families and subsidies for energy costs [11][12]. Corporate Governance and Valuation - The Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Financial Services Agency plan to revise corporate governance codes in 2026 to enhance oversight of companies with excessive cash reserves, promoting more effective use of cash [6][27]. - The expectation of improved return on equity (ROE) for listed companies could lead to an overall valuation increase in the market, with the TOPIX price-to-earnings (PE) ratio potentially rising to 18 times [6][28]. Sector Focus - The report highlights several sectors expected to benefit from the economic policies, including advanced manufacturing related to AI, domestic service industries, and companies actively engaging in corporate governance reforms [33][36]. - The government aims to boost the shipbuilding sector significantly, with plans to increase ship production and enhance Japan's market share in global shipbuilding [35]. Corporate Performance - Major listed companies in Japan reported a net profit increase of 7% in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding market expectations, with non-manufacturing sectors showing strong growth [25][26]. - The consensus for 2026 anticipates a revenue growth of 3.1% and an operating profit increase of 13.7%, particularly benefiting from a recovering manufacturing sector [26]. Technological Innovation - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and related technologies, predicting continued investment growth in AI data centers and a strong demand for semiconductor and related hardware [29][30]. - Japanese companies in the robotics sector are expected to leverage their competitive advantages and partnerships to capitalize on the growth of AI applications [34].