股指期货：内因强于外因

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, with only 3 trading days before the holiday, the market transitioned smoothly with no significant changes in the index. The sector was mainly driven by thematic investment trading, and some technology hotspots remained active. Multiple factors such as the unexpected rebound of China's December PMI, improved trade conditions boosting exports, a longer stocking cycle due to the late Spring Festival, and the effectiveness of previous policies led to a better - than - expected stabilization of the fundamentals [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market during the holiday showed strong performance mainly driven by the technology sector, which is beneficial for the continuation of domestic thematic investment enthusiasm. The US military strike on Venezuela is the first "black swan" event in 2026. It may have an indirect impact on China through the transmission of US inflation expectations, risk appetite, and liquidity expectations, but the direct impact is expected to be limited. Overall, Sino - US economic and trade relations may remain stable. If there is some shock consolidation this week due to risk preference, it still presents a buying opportunity on the dip. Before the Spring Festival, expectations of policy开门红 and monetary easing such as the initial - of - the - year reserve requirement ratio cut still provide support [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic economic data, local two - sessions, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical trends [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. Among them, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.61%, the Spanish index rose 1.06%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.49%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.81%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% [9]. - Since 2025, major indices have shown different degrees of increase. The CSI 1000 rose 27.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose 49.6%. Last week, the major domestic indices also showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the GEM Index fell 1.25% [11]. - Last week, industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices showed mixed performance. In the CSI 300, the energy sector rose 2.91%, while the utilities sector fell 2.84%. In the CSI 500, the telecommunications sector rose 2.35%, and the pharmaceutical sector rose 5.6% [13]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures' main contracts, the IH contract had the largest decline, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [15]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 26th, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.54 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.16 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.78 times, the CSI 500 Index was 32.69 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 46.78 times [16][18]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - Last week, the capital interest rate once rebounded, and the central bank had a net investment situation [21]. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 93 points/116 points, 76 points/45 points, 186 points/261 points, and 228 points/304 points respectively [4]. Trend Strategy - Maintain a bullish view. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2601 main contract is between 4484 and 4715 points, the IH2601 main contract is between 2950 and 3087 points, the IC2601 main contract is between 7232 and 7717 points, and the IM2601 main contract is between 7316 and 7809 points [4]. Cross - variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]