国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][4] - For both rebar and hot - rolled coils, the combination of raw material winter storage and复产 expectations is likely to compress steel mill profits [2][6] - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing has been settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment; for silicomanganese, there is strong post - holiday inquiry sentiment, and the market is waiting for steel tender results [2][11] - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts and will fluctuate widely; coking coal's supply - demand situation has improved, and it will oscillate at a high level [2][14] - Logs will fluctuate at a low level [2][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Tracking: The previous day's closing price was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. The previous day's position was 593,347 lots, a decrease of 20,254 lots. Imported ore prices were stable, and some domestic ore prices increased slightly. The trend strength is 0 [4] - Macro and Industry News: From January to November, state - owned enterprises' total operating revenue was 75,625.76 billion yuan, a 1.0% year - on - year increase; total profit was 3,719.45 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year decrease; and taxes payable were 5,280.3 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamental Tracking: For RB2605 rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,122 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton with a 0.48% decrease. For HC2605 hot - rolled coils, the previous day's closing price was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease. Spot prices were mostly stable [6] - Macro and Industry News: On December 25, weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for various steel products. In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,320 yuan/ton and 5,650 yuan/ton respectively. There were changes in various price differences [11] - Macro and Industry News: On January 4, ferrosilicon prices in some regions increased, and silicomanganese prices in the south decreased. Hebei Steel Group finalized the January procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to December. In December 2025, Tianjin Port's manganese ore dredging volume increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal and coke decreased. There were changes in basis and price differences [14] - Macro and Industry News: On December 31, CCI metallurgical coal index data was released. On the 4th, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market decreased by 100 yuan/ton [14] Logs - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable [19] - Macro and Industry News: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21]