招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - Copper: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - Alumina: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - Industrial Silicon: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - Tin: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - Iron Ore: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - Coking Coal: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - Corn: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - Sugar: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Eggs: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Pigs: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Apples: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - LLDPE: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - PVC: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - PTA: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - Glass: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - PP: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - MEG: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - Crude Oil: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - Styrene: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Soda Ash: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].