铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global commodity market is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and regulatory policies. Different commodities have different trends and outlooks due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external influences [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Overseas: Trump's actions against Venezuela have escalated the risk from long - term sanctions to direct regime impact, increasing oil market risk premium and pressuring global risk appetite. This week, key US economic data such as December ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP, and non - farm payrolls are to be watched [2] - Domestic: China's December manufacturing PMI returned above 50, indicating a marginal stabilization of economic sentiment at the end of 2025, but it is a phased repair. The new regulations on fund sales fees have cleared the policy uncertainty in the bond market, potentially easing the downward pressure on the bond market in the short term. December inflation data is to be watched this week [3] Precious Metals - The price of precious metals had a significant correction before the New Year's Day holiday due to increased regulatory pressure from domestic and foreign exchanges. The CME's two - time increase in precious metal margins led to a capital outflow and a market correction. In the long term, the logic for being bullish on precious metals remains unchanged, and the short - term adjustment may continue. Geopolitical tensions may restart the safe - haven demand for precious metals [4][5] Copper - The price of LME copper slowed its upward trend after reaching a high of $12,500 during the New Year's Day holiday. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on refined copper in mid - 2026, which may lead to a shortage of raw materials in other regions. The Fed's internal divergence on interest rate cuts, a low probability of a January rate cut, and the correction of gold and silver prices all put pressure on copper prices. The start - up of a copper refining project in Sichuan may also impact the supply. Overall, copper prices may face short - term correction pressure [6][7] Aluminum - Geopolitical events in Venezuela have little impact on the current bauxite supply and demand. Fundamentally, the supply side in Inner Mongolia has new production capacity under commissioning but not yet released. The consumption end has a decline in the aluminum processing start - up rate, and social inventories have increased. Aluminum prices may experience a high - level adjustment [8][9] Alumina - The US action against Venezuela has limited impact on the current bauxite market supply and demand. The supply of alumina has a temporary reduction due to a maintenance in Guizhou. The demand increment is limited as electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia are in the early stage of commissioning. The cost - loss production capacity may increase the willingness to cut production, and alumina is expected to stabilize and oscillate [10][11] Cast Aluminum - The raw material waste aluminum market has more circulation. The cost remains high due to the high - level oscillation of industrial silicon and copper prices. The demand side of die - casting enterprises is weak, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12] Zinc - Geopolitical conflicts and upcoming important US economic data release make the market sentiment cautious. Fundamentally, the decline in processing fees has slowed down, but the supply is increasing as refineries resume production, and the downstream start - up rate is affected by holidays and weak consumption. Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure [13][14] Lead - Geopolitical conflicts pressure the market risk preference. The processing fees are weakly stable, providing cost support. The supply recovery is limited, and the demand is weak. Low inventory provides support for lead prices, which are expected to continue wide - range oscillation [15] Steel (Screw and Coil) - During the holiday, steel futures were closed. Last week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of rebar increased for three consecutive weeks, and the demand showed a seasonal weakening. The production of hot - rolled coils recovered, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [16] Iron Ore - During the holiday, iron ore futures were closed, and overseas prices were basically flat. In December 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume and China's import volume reached record highs, while the demand decreased due to steel mill losses and winter maintenance. The inventory also reached a new high. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, so iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - During the holiday, coking coal and coke futures were closed. This week, the inventory of coking coal in mines and ports increased, and the inventory of downstream enterprises also changed. After four rounds of price cuts for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the start - up rate was stable. The demand support was insufficient, and the inventory increased. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate at a low level [19] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - In the week of New Year's Day, CBOT soybeans and related meal contracts declined. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and South America maintains a high - yield expectation. After New Year's Day, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period is approaching, and the short - term Dalian soybean meal is expected to oscillate [20][21][22] Palm Oil - In the week of New Year's Day, BMD palm oil declined, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened again. The domestic palm oil is expected to make up for the decline after the holiday and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [23][24]