LPG：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现，丙烯：上下驱动有限，现货走势企稳

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cost of LPG is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; The upward and downward drivers of propylene are limited, and the spot price trend has stabilized [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2602 closed at 4,132 with a daily increase of 0.85%; PG2603 closed at 4,013 with a daily increase of 1.01%. PL2602 closed at 5,795 with a daily increase of 0.42%; PL2603 closed at 5,835 with a daily increase of 0.73%; PL2604 closed at 5,888 with a daily increase of 0.36% [1] - LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of PG2602 was 86,561, an increase of 13,711 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,440, a decrease of 3,219 from the previous day. The trading volume of PG2603 was 29,368, an increase of 10,914 from the previous day, and the open interest was 57,585, an increase of 2,160 from the previous day. For PL contracts, the trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of change [1] - LPG Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG02 contract was 488, compared with 453 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG02 contract was 668, compared with 583 the previous day. The spreads of Shandong, East China, and South China propylene to PL03 contract also changed [1] - Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.1%, down from 76.4% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, unchanged from the previous period; the alkylation operating rate was 37.0%, down from 38.1% [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3. Market News - CP Paper Goods Prices: On January 2, 2026, the price of February CP paper goods for propane was 518 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 509 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The price of March CP paper goods for propane was 499 US dollars/ton, a rise of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [5] - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with the start time ranging from 2023 to 2025 and the end time mostly undetermined [6] - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Factories such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [6]