PVC：震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry is "Oscillating mainly" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although PVC is at a low valuation and can have a phased rebound, the rebound space is limited due to the short - term unchangeable high - production and high - inventory structure. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. Also, the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 05 - contract futures price is 4805, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 305, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 134 [1] Spot News - After the holiday, affected by the weekend market, the trading atmosphere is dull. The market quotation remains firm, and all parties are waiting and seeing. Terminal demand has a small amount of procurement. The spot five - type ex - warehouse price of PVC in the East China region is 4480 - 4580 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price is 4500 - 4650 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - PVC has a low valuation. The market trading against involution, policy emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and large - scale stop - loss of short - positions in the near - month contracts can drive a phased rebound, but the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Even with some device maintenance and production reduction, the scale is limited. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Profit Outlook - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to profit repair. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with a range of integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]