合成橡胶：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "neutral" view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of synthetic rubber moves up, and in the medium - term, it enters a volatile phase. The price of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector in the short - term due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday. The current situation of butadiene is neutral with strong expectations. Cis - butadiene rubber has no obvious fundamental contradictions and mainly fluctuates with the cost side [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market of Cis - Butadiene Rubber: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 02 contract was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume was 121,267 lots, down 30,873 lots; the open interest was 49,563 lots, down 9,640 lots; and the trading volume was 700.548 million yuan, down 183.493 million yuan [2]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber and the futures main contract was - 115 yuan, up 35 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 65 yuan, down 35 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while that in Shandong increased by 50 yuan [2]. - Fundamental Indicators: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 78.8006%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,152 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 348 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support, and some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory [3]. - Butadiene Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 44,700 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous period. Importers expect a reduction in imports in January [3][4]. - Short - term Market Outlook: Due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday, international energy prices may be strong. Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector. The supply of domestic butadiene is at a high level, while the international supply is slightly reduced. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber remains high [4].