山金期货黑色板块日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and enhanced macro - confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly, but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although the current market is in the off - season of consumption, iron ore's 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend. It is also recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand: Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the total production of the five major varieties rose month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil continued to rise. Due to the significant decline in steel mills' gross profit and the off - season of consumption, steel mills' production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices has increased the cost support for the market [2]. - Technical analysis: The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly on the daily K - line chart but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - Data details: The closing price of the rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill furnace production and profit conditions, production, inventory, spot market transactions, apparent demand, and futures warehouse receipts all have corresponding data changes [2]. Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - Supply: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - Technical analysis: The 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. - Data details: Include spot and futures prices, basis and futures monthly spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrival and port - clearance volumes, inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipts [5]. Industry News - Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has officially entered the charging period, initially covering six product categories such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, and planning to expand to about 180 steel and aluminum - intensive downstream products by 2028 [7]. - The steel industry PMI in December 2025 was 46.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a continued tightening of the industry's operation [8]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that coking coal options will be listed for trading starting from January 16, 2026 [8]. - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented [8]. - There are also various inventory data and production data of steel and other products from different statistical sources [8][9][10].