2026年1月基金配置展望：增配权益，看好成长

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, A-shares rose, U.S. stocks fluctuated, the RMB appreciated, and the fund market performed well with an increase in issuance scale and net inflows into equity ETF funds [2]. - In January 2026, the fundamental model triggers an economic recovery signal, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of equity assets. The growth style and small-cap style are favored [2]. - For fund allocation in January 2026, focus on small-cap and growth styles, pay attention to relatively stable "固收+" funds and short-duration bond funds, and recommend specific funds such as Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF), CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy (165531.OF), etc. [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 December Review Asset Market Performance - Stock Market: A-shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.06% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 up 1.28%. U.S. stocks fluctuated, with the Dow Jones Index up 0.73% and the Nasdaq Index down 0.53%. Hong Kong stocks fell [8][14]. - Bond Market: U.S. Treasury yields declined at the short end and rose at the long end, with the 1-year yield down to 3.48% and the 10-year yield up to 4.18%. Chinese government bond yields also declined at the short end and rose slightly at the long end, with the 1-year yield down to 1.34% and the 10-year yield up to 1.85% [8][18]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The U.S. dollar index declined, and the RMB appreciated, with the onshore exchange rate rising to around 6.99 [8][22]. - Commodity Market: Crude oil prices fell to $60.9 per barrel. Domestic commodity prices rose after fluctuations, while overseas commodity prices fell overall. Among domestic commodities, non-ferrous metals and precious metals led the gains, while agricultural products and energy prices declined [26]. Fund Market Performance - Fund Performance: Except for QDII funds, equity funds had the highest overall gains, and flexible allocation funds had relatively large increases [33]. - Fund Issuance: The total fund issuance scale in December was 112.9 billion yuan, a 19% increase from the previous month. The issuance scale of equity funds was 32.3 billion yuan, a 29% decrease from the previous month, accounting for 29% of the total issuance [33]. - Fund Capital Flow: ETF funds had a net inflow of 241.41 billion yuan (excluding money market funds), and LOF funds had a net inflow of 4.37 billion yuan. Among ETF funds, equity products had a net inflow of 104.98 billion yuan, and bond products had a net inflow of 111.98 billion yuan. Among LOF funds, equity products had a net inflow of 360 million yuan [39]. - Active Equity Fund Style: The overall position of active equity funds increased exposure to quality and dividend styles and decreased exposure to prosperity and value potential styles [40]. 2026 January Outlook Overseas Environment - In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the market expects the Fed to continue the rate-cutting process in 2026. U.S. long-term bond yields rose [48]. Domestic Environment - The private sector financing growth rate turned upward, inflation factors continued to rise, and the fundamental model triggered an economic recovery signal, suggesting an increase in the allocation of equity assets [51]. Timing Strategy Review - In 2025, the timing strategy based on comprehensive fundamental, market sentiment, and momentum factors had a winning rate of 73%, a cumulative excess return of 4.7%, and a maximum drawdown of only 5% [54]. Trading Perspective - The stock market odds are close to the three-year average, and the A-share market sentiment index shows that the sentiment indicators for the equity market in the next month fluctuated sharply in December and have not yet recovered to the optimistic range [55][59]. Market Style - Growth Value Style: The growth value style rotation model recommends the growth style as market factors, U.S. Treasury yields, and style momentum all favor growth [65]. - Size Style: The size style rotation model recommends the small-cap style as the credit environment and long- and short-term style momentum favor small caps, although the monetary environment favors large caps [68]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The model based on macro comprehensive indicators turns bullish on Hong Kong stocks as more macro indicators are bullish this month [77]. Domestic Bond Market - Short-term liquidity tightened, long-term interest rates rose, and short-term bonds offer better opportunities than long-term bonds [80]. Fund Allocation Strategy - Increase the allocation of equity assets, focus on small-cap and growth styles in the short term, pay attention to relatively stable "固收+" funds and short-duration bond funds, and recommend specific funds such as Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF), CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy (165531.OF), etc. [2][82].