苯乙烯成本端驱动趋弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weakening cost - end support and the expectation of a weakening supply - demand structure, the domestic styrene futures are expected to have limited upward momentum in the future and may maintain a volatile and stable trend [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Supply Situation - In recent years, the domestic styrene supply side has shown the dual characteristics of "accelerated capacity expansion + high inventory". From 2021 - 2023, styrene capacity expanded by 9.25 million tons/year, an increase of 76.81%. In 2025, the capacity increased by 11.46% year - on - year, with new production capacity of 1.87 million tons/year, mainly in East China and coastal areas, and the annual output is expected to increase by 14.26% year - on - year [3]. - The annual maintenance loss decreased by nearly half compared with last year, and the overall industry operating rate remained high. Only in the fourth quarter, there were plans to reduce the load or conduct maintenance on devices with a capacity of 4.08 million tons/year, which partially relieved the supply pressure. As of the week of December 26, 2025, domestic styrene production was 354,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [3]. - Inventory accumulation has been one of the main driving factors for the price decline throughout the year. Although the main ports in China showed a continuous de - stocking trend in mid - to - late December, the de - stocking space was limited due to high source concentration. After the festival, with the resumption of maintenance work, the inventory accumulation pressure reappeared [3]. Demand Situation - The total demand of the three major downstream industries of styrene, EPS, PS, and ABS, accounts for more than 70%. In 2025, although there was new capacity of 2.115 million tons/year put into production, the demand growth rate of 10.93% still lagged behind the supply growth rate, and the supply - demand mismatch problem was prominent [4]. - The ABS industry performed well, with the cumulative output from January to October increasing by 27.53% year - on - year, but the high output was not fully digested, and the accumulation of finished product inventory led to intensified industry losses. The EPS industry showed structural differentiation. The demand for cold - chain logistics packaging was stable, but the real - estate downturn suppressed the consumption in the building insulation field. The PS industry was in the dilemma of "excess in the low - end and shortage in the high - end", and the industry operating rate was only 55%, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - In terms of terminal demand, white - goods had policy support but with mixed results. In November 2025, the production of air conditioners and color TVs in China decreased by 23.4% and 5.0% year - on - year respectively, while the production of washing machines and refrigerators increased by 5.5% and 5.6% respectively. From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The real - estate market remained weak, making it difficult to change the demand expectation for styrene [4]. Cost Situation - Styrene has a strong correlation with the price of upstream pure benzene, which accounts for nearly 80% of its production cost. In 2025, due to the bottom - oscillating international oil price and the loose supply - demand of pure benzene, the price center of pure benzene continued to move down. The continuous inventory accumulation in the main ports of pure benzene and the abundant import resources made its price difficult to rise, weakening the cost support for styrene [5]. - After the recent decline of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the downward pressure on pure benzene increased, further weakening its support for styrene. In terms of industrial chain profit distribution, the downstream industries of EPS, PS, and ABS had poor profitability due to the difficulty of following the raw material price increase, which further suppressed the enthusiasm for raw material procurement [5].