橡胶：震荡略偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be slightly bullish in 2026. The annual global natural rubber output in 2026 is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Although there are still issues such as aging rubber trees in some overseas main producing areas, high prices will stimulate more raw material output, and new producing countries may make up for some losses. However, in the long - term cycle, the global natural rubber production is still in a downward trend, and the increase in 2026 is limited, with a 2% increase compared to 2025 [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The day - trading closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 217,811 lots, a decrease of 42,429 lots; the open interest was 168,775 lots, a decrease of 6,799 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 100,590 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 41,079 lots, an increase of 1,004 lots [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 65 to - 355; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 65 to - 905; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 15 to 60. The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged [1]. - Substitute Products: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Market: The prices of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market import rubber market remained unchanged, and the price of African 10 rubber remained unchanged at 1785 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - From 2021 to 2025, the global natural rubber output decreased from 13.9 million tons to 11.76 million tons, with an overall decrease of 12.03% after an initial increase. In 2021 - 2022, the demand for natural rubber recovered, and the output growth rate was significant; in 2023, factors such as climate change and rubber tree diseases affected the output, with Thailand's output decreasing by about 11% year - on - year, but Cote d'Ivoire's output increased by 15%; in 2024, the global output decreased due to weather interference; in 2025, high - price raw materials stimulated the enthusiasm for tapping, and the global output was higher than that in 2024 [2][4].