【兴证宏观|经济脉搏】海外周报2025.12.29-2026.1.4:关注黑天鹅事件对商品价格的扰动-20260105

Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of 4.4% after reaching a historical high, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar[3] - Silver prices saw increased volatility, with fluctuations exceeding 5% in the first three trading days of the week, leading to an 8.4% drop due to margin increases by the CME[3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% amid expectations of oversupply in the global market[3] Geopolitical Events - Notable geopolitical "black swan" events occurred, including an attack on Putin's residence, escalating protests in Iran due to high inflation, and a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela resulting in the arrest of President Maduro[3] - The impact of these geopolitical uncertainties on commodity prices remains to be observed, with ongoing monitoring of global geopolitical developments[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements on future monetary policy, with some officials advocating for rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected[4] - U.S. existing home sales in November fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in the real estate market[4] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index dropped to -10.9, reflecting a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[4] Eurozone Economic Performance - Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December was revised down to 48.8, indicating accelerated contraction and falling below market expectations[5] - The euro depreciated by 0.4% against the dollar, influenced by weak manufacturing data[5] - Major stock indices in Europe saw modest gains, with the Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC indices rising by 1.8%, 0.8%, and 1.1% respectively[5]