集运日报：美突袭委内瑞拉，国际局势再度紧张，主力合约偏强震荡，关注二月运价走势。-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US's attack on Venezuela has led to renewed tensions in the international situation, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest snowstorm in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming navigation in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract closed at 1801.3 on December 31st, with a gain of 0.52%, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3,725 lots from the previous day. Before the holiday, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and combined with some long - position funds reducing their positions and leaving the market, the market fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On December 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2nd, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the eurozone, the December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value 52.8). The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service sector. The December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with an improved business climate. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The US December S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (a six - month low, expected 54, previous value 54.1), and the December S&P Global composite PMI value was 53 (expected 53.9, previous value 54.2) [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and mainly wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On January 3rd (local time), the US launched a military strike on Venezuela. A Venezuelan official said that at least 40 people, including military and civilians, were killed. As of now, the Venezuelan official has not officially announced the casualty figures. US President Trump announced that the military successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela [6].