螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, the combination of raw material winter storage and production resumption expectations is expected to compress steel mill profits [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,122 yuan/ton and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -15 yuan/ton (-0.48%) and -17 yuan/ton (-0.52%). The trading volumes were 651,840 hands and 364,579 hands, and the open interests were 1,505,284 hands and 1,267,557 hands, with changes of -55,522 hands and -15,762 hands respectively [1] - Spot Price Data: Spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of RB2605 increased by 12 yuan/ton to 178 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, HC2601 - RB2601, HC2605 - RB2605, and the spot coil - rebar spread had different changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Steel Output and Inventory Data: On December 25th, steel output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.63 tons, and the total of five major steel products decreased by 1.15 tons. Total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.29 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 13.5 tons, and the total of five major steel products decreased by 36.79 tons. Apparent demand of rebar decreased by 5.96 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 8.76 tons, and the total decreased by 1.67 tons. In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased by 1.3%, 1.9%, and 1.4% respectively. Their steel inventory increased by 8.6% compared to the previous ten - day period [3] - Policy News: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [3] - Social Inventory Data: In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 871 tons, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period [3] - Import Data: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 tons (8.2%) from the previous month. The average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import was 504.1 tons, a decrease of 68.0 tons (11.9%) year - on - year [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]