宁证期货今日早评-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In January, the expected resumption of production and winter storage replenishment by steel mills will bring marginal demand growth. After the year - end shipping rush of overseas mines, there is an expected seasonal decline in January, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The medium - to - long - term outlook for iron ore is bearish based on the mine capacity release cycle [1]. - The real fundamentals of asphalt remain relatively weak. Potential upward drivers in the market come from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [2]. - Short - term coke prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Short - term hog prices will continue to rebound and adjust. Palm oil prices are weak, and short - term palm oil futures in Dalian are expected to open lower and then fluctuate [4][5][6]. - The main contract of soybean meal is suppressed by the expectation of loose supply and demand and runs in the range of 2,730 - 2,790 yuan/ton. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term. Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][9][10][11]. - For crude oil, short - term trading is advisable. Synthetic rubber will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12][13]. - Silver has limited short - term upward space, and it is advisable to wait and see. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term. The bond market is expected to fluctuate upward [14][15]. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons [1]. Asphalt - The spot settlement price of heavy - traffic asphalt varies by region. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%) [2]. Coke - On January 4, the coke market sentiment was still weak. The price of coking coal continued to decline. Steel mills want to lower the fifth - round purchase price, while some coke enterprises demand a price increase [4]. Rebar - At the end of December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons (3.6%) [4]. Hog - As of January 2, the average slaughter weight of hogs was 123.35 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 36.85%, a decrease of 0.37% [5]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month [6]. Soybean Meal - As of January 4, 2026, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous period and an increase of 1.21 days from the same period last year [7]. Copper - A Canadian copper miner's mine in Chile will go on strike starting January 2. The expected production during the strike is only about 30% of the normal level [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1,228.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton. The weekly production of soda ash is 697,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [11]. Crude Oil - The US launched an attack on Venezuela over the weekend. Venezuela's current crude oil production is around 1 million barrels per day, accounting for 0.8% of global production, and its export volume is about 600,000 barrels per day [12]. Synthetic Rubber - In January 2026, the expected production of Chinese butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [12]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,488 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly production of LLDPE is 315,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% [13]. Silver - The next Fed chairman is expected to be announced in January. Short - term silver is affected by the safe - haven demand of gold, but the upward space is limited [14]. Gold - Geopolitical factors are favorable for gold, but the rebound height may be limited. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term [14]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On January 4, most money market interest rates declined. The end - of - year liquidity disturbance is over, and the short - term capital supply has eased, which is favorable for the bond market [15].