金融期货早班车-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains the judgment of long - term bullish on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate various stock index varieties on dips as the stock index can provide certain excess returns as a long - position substitute in the medium - to - long term [2]. - For bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery in the long - term, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 31st, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% to 3203.17 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 1.15% to 1344.2 points. Market trading volume was 2.0658 trillion yuan, a decrease of 95.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, national defense and military industry (+2.13%), media (+1.54%), and real estate (+1.13%) led the gains, while communication (-1.35%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.1%), and electronics (-1.02%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IH > IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,470, 219, and 2,768 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 6.4 billion, - 20.7 billion, 400 million, and 26.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3 billion, - 6.3 billion, +1.8 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 90.88, 57.77, 20.34, and 5.93 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 9.35%, - 6.05%, - 3.43%, and - 1.53% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 47%, 45%, 32%, and 34% respectively [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 31st, interest - rate bonds declined. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.03%, TF dropped 0.04%, T decreased 0.07%, and TL declined 0.35% [3]. - In terms of cash bonds, for the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.1, and an IRR of 1.5%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.88%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.192, and an IRR of 1.07%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.488, and an IRR of 0.15% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 528.8 billion yuan and withdrew 26 billion yuan through open - market operations, with a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import - export, and social activities is currently lower than the previous period, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that of the previous period [10].