银河期货每日早盘观察-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. Geopolitical events such as the US attack on Venezuela have significant impacts on commodity prices, and different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [19][108]. - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are expected to operate around the theme of a technology - powered nation, but risks such as over - opening and geopolitical factors need attention. The bond market may see sentiment repair after the implementation of new regulations, but the scope of repair is limited [19][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: A - shares showed a slow - bull trend at the end of 2025, with the PMI data above 50 adding market confidence. The potential listing of large companies is beneficial to the industrial chain. After the holiday, Hong Kong stocks rose, and A - shares are expected to focus on the technology - related sectors. Attention should be paid to risks such as over - opening, geopolitical issues, and institutional position adjustments [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be to buy on dips as the market is expected to rise; for arbitrage, wait for the spread of IM/IC to widen; for options, use a bull spread strategy [20]. 3.1.2 Treasury Futures - Investment Logic: The bond market was weak before the holiday. The new regulations on public - offering funds may repair the bond market sentiment, but the positive signals from the PMI data are negative for the bond market. The repair space of the bond market is limited due to factors such as strong fundamental expectations and supply - demand concerns for long - term bonds [21][22][23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, close short positions of TS and TF contracts on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Logic Analysis: International soybean cost faces pressure, especially with the improved weather in South America. Domestic soybean supply may decline, and the spot price may be supported. It is expected to oscillate [26]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease, and the market focuses on the northern hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with cost support and potential upward drive from the external market, but there is sales pressure during the peak crushing season [30]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [32]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical events may affect the oil market. The production of Malaysian palm oil in December is expected to decrease, but the inventory is high. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is affected by policies. The overall oil market lacks a clear driver [35]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. For palm oil, short after a rebound; for soybean oil, follow the overall trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - Logic Analysis: US corn is weak but may oscillate narrowly. In China, the supply in the Northeast is low with strong prices, while the supply in North China is increasing with weak prices. Wheat auctions may affect the corn market [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the 03 - contract corn oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips, and the 07 - contract corn can be bought on dips. For arbitrage, narrow the spread between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [38]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Logic Analysis: Pig prices have declined recently due to increased supply. The overall inventory is high, and there is still supply pressure [40]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, short positions can be taken; wait and see for arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Logic Analysis: Peanut spot prices are stable, with a large price difference between Henan and the Northeast. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom [42]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the 05 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Logic Analysis: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, while the far - month May contract can be considered for long positions on dips [46]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the February contract is expected to oscillate, and the May contract can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Logic Analysis: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is low. However, the market demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; wait and see for options [50]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Logic Analysis: The planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease, and the sales progress is fast. The improvement of Sino - US relations and the expansion of textile mills' capacity in Xinjiang support the cotton price. The market is bullish, but there may be short - term corrections [52]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Chinese cotton is expected to rise slightly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Logic Analysis: Steel raw materials are continuously restocked, and steel prices oscillate within a range. Steel production has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The demand for building materials is affected by the season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is still growing. The export may decline in the short term [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal and between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [56]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The contradiction in coking coal is not prominent, and the driving force is not obvious. The import of Mongolian coal may decrease in January, and the production of domestic coal will have seasonal fluctuations. The downstream winter - storage replenishment supports the price, but the upward driving force is insufficient [58]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, wait and see or go long on dips with a light position; wait and see for arbitrage and options [58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The global iron ore shipment is stable, and the supply in China is abundant. The domestic demand for steel is declining, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [60]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is expected to increase after the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is stable. For ferromanganese, the supply is stable, the demand is supported by the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is strong. Both are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [63][64]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options for options [64]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Logic Analysis: During the holiday, the US macro data and margin adjustments put pressure on gold and silver, but geopolitical issues increase the safe - haven demand, and they may oscillate strongly at a high level [67]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, go long on SHFE gold and silver cautiously if they break through the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical events may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium. The fundamentals of platinum are tight, and it can be considered for long positions. Palladium may follow platinum. The domestic premium has shrunk, and attention should be paid to the rebound after over - selling [70][71]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, go long on platinum and palladium on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; wait and see for options [72]. 3.4.3 Copper - Logic Analysis: The US attack on Venezuela may slightly boost the copper price. The copper price has risen rapidly, leading to a decline in consumption and inventory accumulation. The long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips [74]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, buy on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [74]. 3.4.4 Alumina - Logic Analysis: The profit of alumina warehouse - receipt registration has converged, and it is expected to oscillate. The futures "reservoir" function has been reflected, and attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts [77]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - Logic Analysis: The global shortage of aluminum and the domestic subsidy policy support the aluminum price. The domestic spot discount is large, and inventory may increase. It is recommended to go long on dips [79][80]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying physical delivery products and shorting futures; wait and see for options [80]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Logic Analysis: The 2026 subsidy policy is better than expected. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price. The demand is weak, and the trading is light [81]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly with the sector; wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. 3.4.7 Zinc - Logic Analysis: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is partially relieved, the smelting profit is good, and the supply may increase slightly. The downstream consumption is weak but has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate with the non - ferrous metal sector [84][85]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [86]. 3.4.8 Lead - Logic Analysis: The supply of lead is weak due to the shortage of lead ore and recycled lead raw materials. The demand has resilience, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [87]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, go long on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [91]. 3.4.9 Nickel - Logic Analysis: The expectation of quota reduction in Indonesia may boost the nickel price, but the US attack on Venezuela may be negative for the non - ferrous metal sector. The price may rise before significant inventory accumulation [92]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, consider the upward trend before significant inventory accumulation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - Logic Analysis: The expectation of nickel - ore quota reduction and tight hot - rolled resources support the stainless - steel price. The inventory is decreasing, but the export may be affected by the EU's CBAM policy. The price follows the nickel price but has limited upward drive [94]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, follow the nickel price; wait and see for arbitrage [95]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: The demand for industrial silicon is in the off - season, and the supply is slightly reduced. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term price may decline [98]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, sell on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [98]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: The photovoltaic industry's self - discipline and production control support the long - term price of polysilicon. The short - term futures trading volume is low, and attention should be paid to risk management [99]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, participate cautiously and control risks; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell put options for options [99]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - Logic Analysis: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The US attack on Venezuela may affect the market, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. Attention should be paid to risk control [100][101]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, operate cautiously and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [102]. 3.4.14 Tin - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical turmoil may increase the volatility of the tin price. The domestic supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate widely [104]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, the price may oscillate widely after a significant decline; wait and see for options [104]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Logic Analysis: Some shipping companies plan to raise prices in mid - January. The market has different views on the price peak and adjustment rhythm. The demand is expected to improve, and the supply will change. The US attack on Venezuela may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [105]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, close most long positions of the EC2602 contract on rallies and hold a small position; wait and see for arbitrage [106]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical events in Venezuela increase the supply - side disturbance of crude oil. The short - term supply may be affected, but the long - term supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate widely [109]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; for arbitrage, gasoline is strong, diesel is weak, and the crude - oil time - spread rebounds; wait and see for options [109]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The US capture of Maduro has increased the risk of raw - material supply disruption. In the short term, the near - month contract may be strong, and in the long term, the cost may rise [112]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, it may open higher on Monday, but be cautious about chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage and options [113]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical events may drive up the price of fuel oil in the short term. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase [114][115]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term, be cautious about geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, consider the FU59 positive spread; wait and see for options [116]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The cold weather in Europe supports the price in the short term, but the long - term trend is downward. The temperature in the US is expected to rise, and the HH price may decline [118]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, sell Q3 JKM/TTF contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [118]. 3.6.5 LPG - Logic Analysis: The increase in Saudi CP prices supports the domestic LPG price, but the high import price and high inventory pressure may limit the upward space [120]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, go short on the far - month contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [122]. 3.6.6 PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The cost of PX and PTA has increased, and the production reduction of polyester yarn is gradually implemented. The supply and demand of PTA have improved marginally, but the upward drive may weaken [123][124]. - Trading Strategy: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, consider the positive spread of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [124]. 3.6.7 BZ