能源化工期权：能源化工期权策略早报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Energy - chemical sectors are divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubbers, polyesters, alkalis, and others[9]. - Strategies focus on constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered - call strategies to enhance returns[3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Crude Oil: The SC2602 contract's latest price is 432, down 6 (-1.46%), with a trading volume of 5.20 million lots (down 1.41 million lots) and an open interest of 2.96 million lots (down 0.08 million lots)[4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): The PG2602 contract's latest price is 4,132, up 40 (0.98%), with a trading volume of 8.66 million lots (up 1.37 million lots) and an open interest of 5.94 million lots (down 0.32 million lots)[4]. - Methanol: The MA2602 contract's latest price is 2,207, up 21 (0.96%), with a trading volume of 13.53 million lots (up 3.48 million lots) and an open interest of 4.46 million lots (down 0.95 million lots)[4]. - Ethylene Glycol: The EG2602 contract's latest price is 3,649, down 57 (-1.54%), with a trading volume of 0.89 million lots (up 0.32 million lots) and an open interest of 1.33 million lots (up 0.15 million lots)[4]. - Polypropylene: The PP2602 contract's latest price is 6,231, up 40 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 1.42 million lots (down 0.31 million lots) and an open interest of 3.47 million lots (down 0.29 million lots)[4]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The V2602 contract's latest price is 4,539, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 2.37 million lots (up 1.00 million lots) and an open interest of 5.46 million lots (up 0.14 million lots)[4]. - Plastic: The L2602 contract's latest price is 6,299, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 1.93 million lots (up 0.56 million lots) and an open interest of 3.51 million lots (down 0.92 million lots)[4]. - Styrene: The EB2602 contract's latest price is 6,791, up 12 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 30.05 million lots (down 2.76 million lots) and an open interest of 31.13 million lots (down 0.88 million lots)[4]. - Rubber: The RU2605 contract's latest price is 15,605, down 75 (-0.48%), with a trading volume of 21.78 million lots (down 4.24 million lots) and an open interest of 16.88 million lots (down 0.68 million lots)[4]. - Synthetic Rubber: The BR2602 contract's latest price is 11,520, down 30 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 9.77 million lots (down 2.36 million lots) and an open interest of 4.13 million lots (down 0.83 million lots)[4]. - Para - Xylene: The PX2603 contract's latest price is 7,260, down 54 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 25.77 million lots (down 7.48 million lots) and an open interest of 22.95 million lots (down 1.69 million lots)[4]. - Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA): The TA2602 contract's latest price is 5,084, down 38 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 7.04 million lots (down 2.55 million lots) and an open interest of 5.58 million lots (down 0.41 million lots)[4]. - Short - Fiber: The PF2602 contract's latest price is 6,514, down 50 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots (down 0.74 million lots) and an open interest of 13.20 million lots (down 2.12 million lots)[4]. - Bottle Chips: The PR2602 contract's latest price is 6,006, down 32 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 1.09 million lots (up 0.51 million lots) and an open interest of 0.69 million lots (down 0.26 million lots)[4]. - Caustic Soda: The SH2602 contract's latest price is 2,164, down 14 (-0.64%), with a trading volume of 4.01 million lots (down 1.65 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.36 million lots)[4]. - Soda Ash: The SA2602 contract's latest price is 1,151, down 2 (-0.17%), with a trading volume of 2.04 million lots (down 0.58 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.42 million lots)[4]. - Urea: The UR2602 contract's latest price is 1,670, down 7 (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 0.69 million lots (down 0.27 million lots) and an open interest of 1.47 million lots (down 0.23 million lots)[4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Crude Oil: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.02), and open interest PCR is 0.64 (down 0.03)[5]. - LPG: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.68 (down 0.01)[5]. - Methanol: Volume PCR is 0.34 (up 0.01), and open interest PCR is 0.62 (down 0.02)[5]. - Ethylene Glycol: Volume PCR is 0.38 (up 0.12), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (up 0.02)[5]. - Polypropylene: Volume PCR is 0.28 (down 0.09), and open interest PCR is 0.60 (down 0.02)[5]. - PVC: Volume PCR is 0.34 (down 0.14), and open interest PCR is 0.28 (down 0.01)[5]. - Plastic: Volume PCR is 0.39 (down 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (down 0.02)[5]. - Styrene: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (unchanged)[5]. - Rubber: Volume PCR is 0.30 (up 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.37 (unchanged)[5]. - Synthetic Rubber: Volume PCR is 0.47 (up 0.03), and open interest PCR is 0.80 (down 0.03)[5]. - Para - Xylene: Volume PCR is 0.73 (down 0.34), and open interest PCR is 1.93 (up 0.07)[5]. - PTA: Volume PCR is 0.76 (up 0.13), and open interest PCR is 1.06 (up 0.09)[5]. - Short - Fiber: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.04), and open interest PCR is 1.02 (unchanged)[5]. - Bottle Chips: Volume PCR is 0.88 (down 0.39), and open interest PCR is 1.30 (down 0.01)[5]. - Caustic Soda: Volume PCR is 0.38 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.46 (down 0.05)[5]. - Soda Ash: Volume PCR is 0.51 (down 0.07), and open interest PCR is 0.34 (down 0.02)[5]. - Urea: Volume PCR is 0.45 (up 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.81 (unchanged)[5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Crude Oil: Pressure point is 540, support point is 440[6]. - LPG: Pressure point is 4,200, support point is 4,000[6]. - Methanol: Pressure point is 2,300, support point is 2,100[6]. - Ethylene Glycol: Pressure point is 4,000, support point is 3,500[6]. - Polypropylene: Pressure point is 6,500, support point is 6,200[6]. - PVC: Pressure point is 5,000, support point is 4,300[6]. - Plastic: Pressure point is 6,600, support point is 6,200[6]. - Styrene: Pressure point is 7,000, support point is 6,300[6]. - Rubber: Pressure point is 17,000, support point is 14,000[6]. - Synthetic Rubber: Pressure point is 12,600, support point is 11,000[6]. - Para - Xylene: Pressure point is 7,600, support point is 5,800[6]. - PTA: Pressure point is 5,300, support point is 4,800[6]. - Short - Fiber: Pressure point is 7,200, support point is 6,100[6]. - Bottle Chips: Pressure point is 6,400, support point is 5,300[6]. - Caustic Soda: Pressure point is 2,400, support point is 2,080[6]. - Soda Ash: Pressure point is 1,200, support point is 1,100[6]. - Urea: Pressure point is 1,700, support point is 1,640[6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Crude Oil: At - the - money implied volatility is 27.75%, weighted implied volatility is 34.02% (up 1.79%), annual average is 31.44%, call implied volatility is 37.40%, put implied volatility is 28.22%, HISV20 is 26.32%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.43[7]. - LPG: At - the - money implied volatility is 21.17%, weighted implied volatility is 25.21% (up 1.37%), annual average is 22.22%, call implied volatility is 26.41%, put implied volatility is 21.49%, HISV20 is 18.92%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.25[7]. - Methanol: At - the - money implied volatility is 20.195%, weighted implied volatility is 24.65% (down 1.03%), annual average is 20.48%, call implied volatility is 26.16%, put implied volatility is 20.21%, HISV20 is 18.50%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.70[7]. - Ethylene Glycol: At - the - money implied volatility is 15.23%, weighted implied volatility is 21.72% (down 1.60%), annual average is 15.97%, call implied volatility is 23.89%, put implied volatility is 15.99%, HISV20 is 16.78%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.55[7]. - Polypropylene: At - the - money implied volatility is 10.705%, weighted implied volatility is 21.30% (up 3.98%), annual average is 12.53%, call implied volatility is 23.68%, put implied volatility is 12.86%, HISV20 is 12.44%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.73[7]. - PVC: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.475%, weighted implied volatility is 24.68% (up 0.52%), annual average is 19.06%, call implied volatility is 26.95%, put implied volatility is 17.98%, HISV20 is 16.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.17[7]. - Plastic: At - the - money implied volatility is 13.345%, weighted implied volatility is 17.71% (down 2.13%), annual average is 13.27%, call implied volatility is 18.82%, put implied volatility is 14.86%, HISV20 is 13.27%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.07[7]. - Styrene: At - the - money implied volatility is 19.3%, weighted implied volatility is 23.95% (down 2.05%), annual average is 21.03%, call implied volatility is 24.96%, put implied volatility is 20.77%, HISV20 is 18.73%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.57[7]. - Rubber: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.62%, weighted implied volatility is 22.07% (up 0.77%), annual average is 22.84%, call implied volatility is 23.14%, put implied volatility is 18.45%, HISV20 is 18.41%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.21[7]. - Synthetic Rubber: At - the - money implied volatility is 24.805%, weighted implied volatility is 28.06% (down 1.22%), annual average is 27.11%, call implied volatility is 29.07%, put implied volatility is 25.92%, HISV20 is 22.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.50[7]. - Para - Xylene: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.64%, weighted implied volatility is 25.42% (down 4.04%), annual average is 21.70%, call implied volatility is 27.78%, put implied volatility is 22.18%, HISV20 is 16.77%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.87[7]. - PTA: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.11%, weighted implied volatility is 24.96% (down 5.56%), annual average is 20.29%, call implied volatility is 27.77%, put implied volatility is 21.25%, HISV20 is 14.35%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 7.76[7]. - Short - Fiber: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.185%, weighted implied volatility is 21.88% (down 2.37%), annual average is 17.61%, call implied volatility is 23.08%, put implied volatility is 19.78%, HISV20 is 13.57%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 4.62[7]. - Bottle Chips: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.42%, weighted implied volatility is 23.18% (down 3.08%),