国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for LLDPE and PP, the investment views are both “oscillatory,” suggesting a short - term market with no clear upward or downward trend [2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, it is in a state of a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. The short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and macro - environment all have different impacts on the market [2]. - For PP, the driving force is insufficient, and the rebound is limited. The short - term market is also expected to oscillate, affected by multiple factors including supply, demand, inventory, and cost [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Supply: This week, China's total polyethylene production was 672,200 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new device overhauls, some existing devices restarted, leading to a slight increase in capacity utilization [2]. - Demand: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products decreased by 1.0% compared to the previous period. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease but a 5.04% month - on - month increase, mainly due to delayed shipments in October and increased arrivals from Iran in November [2]. - Inventory: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 346,700 tons, a 20.48% decrease from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 475,100 tons, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and 19.11% higher year - on - year [2]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 124, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - Profit: The costs of oil - based and methanol - based production increased by 101 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the costs of coal - based and ethane - based production decreased by 141 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. The ethylene - based cost remained the same as last week. The import arbitrage profit showed mixed trends [2]. - Valuation: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2]. - Macro: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [2]. PP Analysis - Supply: This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 793,700 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous period [3]. - Demand: The average operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%. Before the New Year's Day, the consumption boost of PP products was weak. Most industries are reducing production according to demand, and the industry's overall operating rate is expected to continue to decline [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 490,700 tons, a 7.99% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 1.00 million tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous period. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.24 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous period [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 88, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - Profit: The profits of PP production from externally purchased propylene and PDH improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. The weekly average export profit of Chinese polypropylene was - 4.14 US dollars/ton, a 352.44% decrease from last week [3]. - Valuation: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3]. - Macro Policy: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [3].