中辉有色观点-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure and decline [1] - Tin: Under pressure and decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and copper. The capture of the Venezuelan president has injected geopolitical risk premiums into the gold market and may distort the global copper supply [1][2][6] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different metals vary, affecting their price trends. For example, zinc is facing supply increase and demand decrease in the medium - long term, while aluminum and nickel are showing short - term rebound trends [1][8][12] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Core view: Long - term hold, short - term attention to the trading of the safe - haven properties of gold and silver after the opening [1][3] - Main logic: The capture of the Venezuelan president has a far - reaching impact, enhancing the safe - haven demand for gold. The European economic data is weak, and the overall support for precious metals in 2026 is strong [2][3] - Market data: SHFE gold price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX gold price increased by 0.23%. SHFE silver price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX silver price increased by 1.81% [2] Copper - Core view: Long - term hold, short - term market volatility may increase, copper is likely to rise and difficult to fall [1][6] - Main logic: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the geopolitical situation may further distort the supply. High copper prices suppress demand [5][6] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 0.84%, and the social inventory increased by 2.41 million tons [4] Zinc - Core view: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Main logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, supply slightly recovers, and the price center may gradually decline in January [8] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.06%, and the SMM seven - place social inventory decreased by 0.58 million tons [7] Aluminum - Core view: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][13] - Main logic: The production of electrolytic aluminum increases, the demand enters the off - season, and the alumina market is in excess [12] - Market data: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.80%, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.5 million tons [10] Nickel - Core view: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][17] - Main logic: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore quota, and the inventory is at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season [16] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract increased by 0.35%, and the SMM nickel ore port inventory decreased by 480,000 wet tons [14] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1][21] - Main logic: The production in January decreases, the supply has room to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20] - Market data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.83%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons [18]