2026年01月05日：期货市场交易指引-20260105

Report Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be moderately bullish [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish [1][17][23] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples are expected to be moderately bullish; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs suggest short - term shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs suggest hedging on rallies for 02 contracts; corn suggests cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal suggests bullishness on dips for near - term contracts and bearishness for far - term contracts; oils suggest limited rebound and cautious chasing of highs [1][29][31] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the supply and demand, cost, policy and other factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis results. The market trends of different products are affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic policies, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [5][10][29] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: The market mainline rotates rapidly, and the index may trade sideways. The follow - up trend depends on trading volume. If the volume remains high, the index may continue to rise; otherwise, it may face short - term correction risks [5] - Treasury Bonds: The previous driving factors are fading, institutions are more cautious at the end of the year, and the market lacks significant driving factors. The market may continue to trade sideways before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. Short - term trading should be based on range - right - side trading [7] - Rebar: The futures price oscillates. In terms of valuation, it is neutral; in terms of driving factors, there is no incremental policy in the short term, and the steel export is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it is suitable for range trading [7] - Glass: At the end of the month, multiple production lines are expected to shut down, and the supply is expected to decrease, which may push up the price. Although the medium - long - term supply - demand is deteriorating, there are short - term speculation opportunities around New Year's Day. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has reached a high level, but the current price is over - inflated, and the upward momentum is limited. It is expected to trade in a wide range at a high level. Pay attention to changes in spot discounts and inventory accumulation speed [10][11] - Aluminum: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, but policy expectations are uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. Although the short - term price may be bullish, the upside space should be viewed cautiously [12] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13][14] - Tin: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to continue to trade in a moderately bullish range. Pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [15] - Gold and Silver: The prices are supported by liquidity and are expected to trade in a range. The central price in the medium term has moved up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is expected to be supplemented by South American imports, and the demand is strong but the downstream production may decline. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level. Pay attention to macro data, policies, exports, inventory and upstream start - up rates [17][19] - Caustic Soda: The "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation suppresses the price. The near - term contract may reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival, and the far - term contract's upward trend needs to be verified by supply contraction [19] - Styrene: The short - term rebound is due to factors such as rising oil prices, but the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the medium - long term [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, the cost support may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue to trade sideways [21] - Urea: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the compound fertilizer demand is supporting. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply in the mainland is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. Both the mainland and ports are accumulating inventory [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient. The upward space is limited. It is expected to be weakly bullish, and pay attention to the support levels [23][24] - Soda Ash: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong after supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and see [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton production and consumption are adjusted downward in the 2025/26 season, and the ending inventory increases slightly. The price is expected to be moderately bullish due to stable consumption and policy expectations [26] - Apples: The trading of late - Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [28] - Jujubes: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The short - term price rebounds due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress the upward space. The far - term price is cautiously bullish due to capacity reduction, but the industry cost is decreasing [29][31] - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The medium - term supply pressure may be alleviated by large - scale culling, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [31][32] - Corn: The short - term price has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. The medium - long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [32][33] - Soybean Meal: It is recommended to trade in a range, be bullish on dips for near - term contracts and bearish for far - term contracts [34][35] - Oils: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and gradually close long positions. The medium - long - term fundamentals have certain positive factors [35][41]