现货走弱，期货震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda this week shows a neutral trend. Maintenance has decreased, production has increased, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward next week. Demand is also neutral, with a decline in alumina start - up and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is bearish, with an increase in factory - warehouse inventory and a decrease in sample warehouse inventory in some regions. The basis is neutral, the profit is bearish, the valuation is bullish, and the macro - policy has no significant impact [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased by 0.3 tons to 840,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment will have both maintenance and restart, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3] - Demand: Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3] - Inventory: The factory - warehouse inventory of 200,000 tons or more of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.83% and a year - on - year increase of 72.72%. The inventory ratio of sample warehouse in the central and eastern regions decreased [3] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 85, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - Profit: The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 88% [3] - Valuation: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute price of the disk is low. The near - month contract is slightly at a premium [3] - Macro Policy: There is currently no significant impact [3] - Investment View: Short - term disk has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating. There is no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures market was oscillating strongly. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. After the New Year's Day, the price of 32% caustic soda decreased to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor [6] - The total open interest increased, with an increase in positions in the far - month contracts [24] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [32] - Upstream Production: Start - up remains stable at a high level, and inventory is being destocked [35] - Main Production Area Production: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [38] - Chlor - Alkali Profit: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [39] - Downstream Price: Alumina price has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42] - Alumina: Alumina start - up has recovered, and inventory has increased. The supply - demand balance of alumina has been repaired, port bauxite inventory has increased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [54][64] - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum start - up remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered the seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline [65] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: Start - up rate has rebounded [73]