有色金属周报：市场情绪向好，有色板块持续走强-20260105

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - Raw Material End: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - Smelting End: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - Demand End: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - Inventory: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - Investment Viewpoint: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - Raw Material End: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - Smelting End: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - Demand End: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - Inventory: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - Investment Viewpoint: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - Trading Strategy: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - Raw Material End: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - Smelting End: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - Demand End: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - Inventory: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - Investment Viewpoint: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]