沥青（BU）：美方斩获马杜罗，原料端扰动支撑沥青价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "bullish", and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is also "bullish" [4] Core View of the Report - The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US has caused disturbances in the raw material supply, which supports the price of asphalt. Although short - term prices are expected to rebound strongly from the bottom, the upside is limited by weak demand and high inventory. In the future, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase, but whether it can be exported to China involves Sino - US political games [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In December, the asphalt operating rate was 34.2%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.1%; production was 2.242 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; imports were 440,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In January, production is expected to be 2 million tons (a 10.8% month - on - month decrease) and imports 360,000 tons (an 18.2% month - on - month decrease). In 2026, the refinery operating rate will remain low, and imports will be further restricted [4] - Demand: Currently in the seasonal off - season, demand has declined month - on - month. In January, northern demand will basically stop, and southern demand will be stable. In 2026, demand growth will be limited, and overall demand will be weak [4] - Inventory: Currently, domestic asphalt refinery inventory is 612,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%, and social inventory is 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, refinery inventory is expected to increase to 1.73 million tons (a 3% month - on - month increase), and social inventory may accumulate. From February to March, supply will exceed demand, and overall inventory pressure will gradually emerge [4] - Cost: Venezuelan oil is an important raw material for asphalt production in northern China. The shortage of raw materials will strongly support the asphalt price and crack spread, but the upside is still limited [4] - Investment View and Trading Strategy: The investment view is bullish. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy [4] 2. Price - It presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong [6][7] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the asphalt crack spread, the difference between asphalt and coker feedstock, and the basis in major regions [13][16] 4. Supply - It shows the production, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume of asphalt in different regions and time periods [18][22][35] 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [38][41] 6. Inventory - It presents the refinery inventory, refinery inventory rate, and social inventory of asphalt in different regions and time periods [47][49][52] 7. Demand - It shows the asphalt shipment volume, downstream operating rate, and modified asphalt operating rate in different regions and time periods [56][58][64]