地缘黑天鹅扰动市场，国内经济有所回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have suddenly changed, and the commodity market may experience new fluctuations. The Fed meeting minutes did not provide more information to boost market sentiment. Domestic policies are gradually taking effect, and new policies will be introduced to achieve a stable economic start. Geopolitical factors, such as the US's new actions against Venezuela, will disrupt commodities like crude oil and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market Review: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the news was relatively quiet, and market trading was dull [3] - Overseas Factors - The Fed meeting minutes showed internal disagreement on policy paths. The Fed has entered a "wait - and - see" policy stage, and future interest rate decisions will be more data - dependent [3] - The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, lower than November's 52.2 and the market expectation of 52, indicating a significant slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3] - US President Trump postponed the tariff increase plan for imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets on December 31, 2025 [3] - The US military's action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, a geopolitical "black swan" event, briefly pushed up the risk premium of crude oil and stimulated safe - haven assets. However, the impact on oil prices is limited and unsustainable due to the global oil supply glut [3] - Domestic Factors - In December, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI all rose into the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate. There was an improvement in supply and demand, a continuation of the price recovery, and a return of the non - manufacturing business activity index to the expansion range [3] - The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy tone, showing policy continuity and stability [3] - During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in December 2025, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, and advancing 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds [3] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - Interest Rate Decision: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, but the number of opposing votes was the highest since 2019, revealing internal differences on the policy path [3] - Manufacturing PMI: The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, the lowest in five months, showing a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3][10] - Tariff Policy: The US postponed the tariff increase on imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets [3][13] - Geopolitical Event: The US military action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, affected the oil market, but the impact was limited due to the global oil supply surplus [3][16] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - PMI Index: In December 2025, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to the expansion range, with improvements in supply, demand, price, and business expectations [3][21] - Fiscal Policy: The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy for 2026, showing policy continuity [3] - Consumption and Travel: The domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [3][27] - Policy Optimization: The equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in 2026 were optimized in support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, with 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds advanced [3][29][30] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Production: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace operating rates showed certain trends [33][37] - Automobile Sales: Automobile wholesale and retail data had specific changes [42][45] - Agricultural Product Prices: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price index, fluctuated [47]