PVC周报：宏观情绪好转，盘面震荡偏强-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC is bullish in the medium - to - long term, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, and there is no arbitrage strategy at present [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, and the PVC market is expected to be range - bound with a slight upward bias. Although the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, factors such as improved profit margins, low valuations, and positive macro policies provide some upside support [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply situation is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with no capacity exit, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The overall capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 78.63%, with a 1.40% week - on - week increase and a 1.81% year - on - year decrease. The increase in capacity utilization is mainly due to the resumption of production at some enterprises [3]. - Demand: The demand situation is bearish. Downstream demand has entered the off - season, with a decline in downstream开工. The开工 rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 35.60%, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease and a 2.47% year - on - year increase. The开工 rate of PVC profile enterprises has also decreased. The PVC glove industry has stable demand, and most enterprises' orders are scheduled until February 2026. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 27.53 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64%, and the cumulative export from January to November increased by 47.17% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: The inventory situation is bearish. The PVC social inventory has increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 106.11 tons, and the inventory days of PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased by 0.39% week - on - week [3]. - Basis: The basis is neutral, and the current basis is - 335 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: The profit situation is bullish. The profits of both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC have increased week - on - week. The average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production enterprises has increased by 223 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises has increased by 134 yuan/ton [3]. - Valuation: The valuation is bullish as the price is at a historical low [3]. - Macro Policy: The macro policy is bullish. The macro sentiment is positive, the RMB is continuously appreciating, and there is an expectation of rising crude oil prices due to the US military action against Venezuela [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has been range - bound with a slight upward bias this week. The futures price has improved due to positive macro expectations, but the spot market remains weak. On the supply side, there are no new enterprises for maintenance, but the production of some calcium carbide - based enterprises is at a low level. After the end of maintenance at some enterprises, the production has increased slightly, leading to increased supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic downstream开工 has continued to decline, and the export orders have weakened as the export price has risen [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production in Main Producing Areas: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region is high [34]. - Domestic Inventory: The factory inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased [44]. - Downstream Average开工 Rate: The downstream开工 rate has declined, including the开工 rates of pipes and profiles [69]. - Export: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. Although short - term price increases have weakened export enthusiasm, due to India's policy changes and increased demand in emerging markets, there is still great potential for future export growth [78][86].