宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-05-20260105

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". It is predicted to maintain an oscillating and stronger trend after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "stronger", and the reference view is "stronger operation" [1] Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the holiday provides the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. The reduction of methanol inventory in domestic ports has led to the repair of port spot prices, strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot market has enhanced the confidence of long - positions. The short - term upward trend of domestic methanol futures before the holiday is the result of "strong expectations (decreased imports)" outweighing "weak reality (weak demand)" [5]