Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Volatile [4] - Pulp: Volatile [4] - Offset paper: Stable and volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Weak [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wide-range volatility [9] - PTA: Wide-range volatility [9] - MEG: Low-level volatility [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The short-term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, and the supply and demand factors are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult to form a large unilateral market. The overall operation is expected to be volatile within a range [2] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the stock market is expected to be led by the technology sector, especially the semiconductor materials and information technology service concepts. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price [4] - The spot market price of logs is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - The fundamentals of the pulp market show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the South American soybean-producing areas and the risks of production and sales changes in Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. After New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on the weather in South America, the implementation of auction policies, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and the efficiency of Spring Festival logistics [6] - The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. After the New Year's Day holiday, the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly [7] - The natural rubber market is characterized by marginal relief of supply, entry into the traditional consumption off-season, and high inventory. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] - The short-term price of PX should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: In the first quarter, the main producing areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather-sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. The steel mills' winter storage replenishment demand is gradually increasing, providing short-term support for steel prices. However, the high domestic port inventory suppresses the upward range of iron ore prices. The short-term operation is expected to be volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the four rounds of price cuts for coke are implemented, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the steel mills' procurement is still expected to be cautious. In January, there is an expectation of an increase in coking coal supply, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream year-end stocking rhythm [2] - Rebar: During the New Year's Day holiday, the market activity decreased. The output of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the traders' willingness to take goods was weak. The steel price is estimated to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: The spot market sentiment during the holiday was still weak, the spot price declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. There is an expectation of cold repair at the end of the year. The market is expected to first verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and then verify whether the demand can be maintained. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and the cold repair of production lines [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: After the New Year's Day holiday, the market is expected to be led by the technology sector. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market trend rebounds slightly. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the one-day net withdrawal of funds is 4336 billion yuan [3] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price. In the short term, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts are positive for the gold price, while the position adjustment pressure at the beginning of the year and the reduction of the leverage ratio by the world's largest exchange suppress the gold price [4] - Silver: The short-term trend is similar to that of gold, with high-level volatility [4] Light Industry - Logs: The spot market price is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is increasing, but the demand is not good, and the fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - Offset paper: The supply side is relatively stable this week, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has support for the market, but the social orders are average. The large paper mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the positive sentiment may continue, but the fundamental driving support is not strong. The short-term price is expected to be stable and volatile [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils and fats: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The biofuel blending policy is still uncertain. The demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is still abundant. The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile [6] - Meals: The global soybean ending inventory is relatively loose. The weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought. The new-season soybeans are approaching the market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and the demand scale is uncertain. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is cautious. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday boosts the pig price, but after the holiday, the weekly average price may decline slightly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply side of natural rubber is narrowing in the short term, and the raw material rubber price is relatively strong. The demand side is supported insufficiently, and the inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] Polyester - PX: The supply of PX is generally loose, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The short-term price should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - PTA: The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - MEG: The load of domestic MEG is slowly recovering, the overseas supply is being squeezed out, and the port inventory is high and continues to accumulate. After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - PR: The short-term supply increases slightly, the downstream maintains rigid demand replenishment, and the supply and demand stalemate pattern continues. The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - PF: The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9]
新世纪期货交易提示（2026-1-5）-20260105
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2026-01-05 02:53