华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260105

Report Summary of Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report Core View - The price center of finished products is moving down and running weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is running strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and are expected to resume production from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center is moving down, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The future trend is to be affected by macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - Supply: Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is expected to continue to increase in the short - term. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20 [3] - Cost: In December, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.7% month - on - month and decreased by 23.3% year - on - year. Although the cost of alumina raw materials decreased, the total cost increased due to rising electricity and auxiliary material costs. However, the cost increase was lower than the aluminum price increase, and the profit margin expanded [3] - Demand: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9% last week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [3] - Inventory: Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% by the end of December compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption [3] - Price: Supported by macro - sentiment and industry restructuring news, the price is running strongly at a high level. However, considering the domestic off - season, inventory accumulation, and approaching Spring Festival holidays, attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance. The short - term price is expected to be strong, also affected by macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4][5]