碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳，规避短期波动风险，成材，重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range-bound consolidation. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support for prices [1][2]. - The view on raw materials (carbonate lithium) is that it will stabilize in a range-bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes. The supply side is releasing more capacity, the cost - side support is strengthening, short - term demand declines slightly while long - term demand support is solid, and the inventory is tight but its support for prices is weakening [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Logic: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or plan to shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. The finished products continued to decline in a range - bound manner yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center moves down. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing limited price support [1][2]. - View: Operate in a range - bound consolidation [2] - Later Concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand [2] Raw Materials (Carbonate Lithium) - Logic: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM carbonate lithium increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week. The cost - side support is strengthening as upstream raw material prices continue to rise. On the demand side, short - term demand slightly decreases while long - term demand support is solid. SMM data shows that the production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 3.2% and 0.8% respectively week - on - week last week, and the production of power cells decreased by 0.92% week - on - week. The inventory of ternary increased by 3.2% week - on - week, and that of lithium iron decreased by 0.98% week - on - week. The SMM sample total inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, with a slower de - stocking slope, and the total inventory days remained at 26.1 days. The inventory structure is shifting from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The inventory is still tight, but its support for prices is weakening [2]. - View: Stabilize in a range - bound manner, focusing on capital games and marginal supply - demand changes [3] - Later Concerns: Macroeconomic policies, capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, capital and sentiment [3]