甲醇周报：进口预期下降甲醇企稳反弹-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]