中泰期货晨会纪要-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 all rose, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18% cumulatively, hitting a ten - year high. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026 [8][6]. 2.2 Commodity Market - Futures Market: Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend - bearish, shock - bearish, or shock - bullish state. Based on quantitative analysis, some commodities are rated as bearish, shock, or bullish [2]. - Black Commodities: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term but are restricted by the profit pressure of the steel industry chain. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [11][12][14]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For Shanghai zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies. For Shanghai lead, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices. Lithium carbonate may have a short - term price correction but has long - term demand support. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies, and for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][20]. - Agricultural Products: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of recovering valuation and is recommended for short - term trading. For eggs, the near - month contracts have limited upside, and the far - month contracts have strong support but high valuations. Apples are expected to be in a shock market. Corn prices are expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term. Jujubes are expected to be in a shock state. For live pigs, the spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [23][25][27]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are expected to be bearish. Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices. Polyethylene is expected to be in a shock - bullish state. Rubber is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Synthetic rubber is expected to be shock - bullish in the short term. Methanol's fundamentals are improving, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction. Caustic soda's near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically. Asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester chain is in a short - term adjustment state, and positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered. Liquefied petroleum gas has limited upside space. Pulp is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Logs are expected to be in a shock - bearish state. Urea is expected to be strong in the short term [32][33][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% on the last trading day, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76% [8][6]. - The US government issued a full - year license to TSMC, allowing the export of US chip - manufacturing equipment to its Nanjing factory. The US is likely to announce the next Fed Chairman in January [6]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Trend - bearish commodities: caustic soda, live pigs, pulp, etc. - Shock - bearish commodities: lead, corn, zinc, etc. - Shock commodities: synthetic rubber, urea, rubber, etc. - Shock - bullish commodities: none mentioned. - Trend - bullish commodities: none mentioned [2]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Analysis - Bearish commodities: rapeseed oil, polypropylene, soybeans No. 1, etc. - Shock commodities: corn, coke, Shanghai gold, etc. - Bullish commodities: soybean oil, eggs, plastic, etc. [2]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy: The central economic working conference did not introduce new policies, and the policy interference in the steel production end is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is good. The supply is relatively stable, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The iron ore supply is strong, and the demand is stable [11][12]. - Valuation: The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal are oscillating, and the steel price is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [12]. - Trend: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [12]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Fluctuation Reason: The "anti - involution" policy led to a rebound in coking coal prices. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills has decreased in the short term [13]. - Future Outlook: The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to the profit pressure of the steel industry chain [13]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Manganese silicon is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium and long term, and ferrosilicon is also recommended to be short - sold on rallies [14]. - Fluctuation Reason: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon fluctuated, and the steel mills had signs of stockpiling before the Spring Festival [14]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Fluctuation Reason: The supply of glass decreased, and the sentiment of the soda ash futures market rose. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover [15]. - View: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of zinc ingots decreased. - Supply and Demand: The supply in December decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand has some resilience but is expected to weaken in January [17]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of lead ingots increased. - Supply and Demand: The production of recycled lead decreased in December, and the spot market was lightly traded. The consumption during the New Year's Day holiday decreased, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased [18][19]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental: The fundamentals are weakening in the short term, and the inventory accumulation expectation in the first quarter is strong. - Outlook: The price may correct in the short term, but the long - term demand is good, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It has some valuation repair space but is still under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is expected to be supported by the anti - involution policy and the downstream demand [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE cotton fell, and the domestic cotton market was affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [24]. - Future Outlook: The global cotton supply and demand are slightly loose, and the domestic cotton supply is temporarily loose. It is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [23][24]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE raw sugar fell due to oversupply, and the domestic sugar market was affected by supply and demand and cost [25]. - Future Outlook: The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading [25][26]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are close to the spot price, and the spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the upside is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory "break", but the valuation is high [27][28]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see for the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts have limited upside [27][28]. 3.5.4 Apples - Fluctuation Reason: The出库 volume decreased, and the sales in the distribution area were slow, leading to a weakening of the futures price [29]. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the distribution area [29]. 3.5.5 Corn - Fluctuation Reason: The domestic corn spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was in a shock state. The selling sentiment of farmers and the policy grain auction are the key factors [29]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling sentiment in March [29][30]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Fluctuation Reason: The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the market is in a shock state. - Future Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the distribution area [30]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Fluctuation Reason: The scale enterprises reduced the supply before the New Year's Day, and the social pig supply was tight, leading to a rise in the spot price [31]. - Future Outlook: The spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [31]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical Impact: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on the market, and the long - term impact on oil prices is negative [32]. - Supply and Demand: OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter is difficult to sustain, and the oil price is expected to be bearish [32]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuates with the oil price, and the supply is loose, and the demand is weak [33]. - Geopolitical Impact: The geopolitical premium is weakening, and the price is under pressure [33]. 3.6.3 Polyethylene - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak, but the upstream losses may provide some support [34]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bullish state [34]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The international macro - environment and trading system may increase the capital participation, but the seasonal factors limit the upside space [35]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips [35]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The cost is supported, and the short - term sentiment fluctuates [36]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, and it may be shock - bullish in the short term [36]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Supply and Demand: The supply may decrease, and the demand may increase, and the fundamentals are improving [37]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are in a shock - bullish state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction [37][38]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are weak, and the far - month 05 contracts have macro - positive expectations [39]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically [39]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuation is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of raw materials [40]. - Outlook: The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40]. 3.6.9 Polyester Chain - Fluctuation Reason: The market has digested the positive expectations, and the price is in a short - term adjustment state [41]. - Outlook: Positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [41]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Supply and Demand: The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the domestic demand has pressure, and the upside space is limited [42][43]. - Outlook: It has some support, but the upside space is limited [42][43]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Fluctuation Reason: The spot trading is weak, and the futures price is under pressure from hedging [44]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Logs - Fundamental: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [45]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bearish state [45]. 3.6.13 Urea - Current Situation: The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is expected to be strong [46]. - Outlook: It is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand and Indian procurement [46].