汽车以旧换新补贴政策如期落地，26年新能源车同比增速有望维持高个位数增长：电力设备

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][30]. Core Insights - The new vehicle replacement subsidy policy has been implemented as expected, with continued support for mid-to-high-end vehicles [2][13]. - The expected year-on-year growth rate for new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is approximately 18%, with a forecasted high single-digit growth rate for 2026 [4][15]. - The performance of leading new energy vehicle companies is showing significant differentiation, with brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng, and NIO performing well [5][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy policy includes changes such as a shift from fixed subsidies to price-linked subsidies, with scrapping subsidies set at 12% for electric vehicles and 10% for gasoline vehicles, with caps of 20,000 and 15,000 yuan respectively [3][13]. - The overall subsidy policy is expected to stabilize, with a gradual reduction in subsidies for vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, while maintaining support for those above this price point [3][13]. Market Dynamics - In the narrow passenger vehicle market, the cumulative wholesale volume from January to November 2025 is approximately 26.726 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [4][15]. - The cumulative wholesale volume for new energy vehicles during the same period is about 13.742 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [4][15]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles is expected to reach approximately 54.1% in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percentage points [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong mid-to-high-end potential, such as Geely, Seres, JAC Motors, and NIO, as well as export brands with sustained high growth, including BYD, Leap Motor, and Great Wall Motors [6][20].