南华期货金融期货早评-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The US military action in Venezuela is an upgrade of the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" strategy, which has led to a sharp increase in global risk aversion and a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. However, in the long - term, it may accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, but the trend is non - linear [4]. - The domestic PMI in December exceeded expectations, driven by the recovery of supply and demand and price stabilization. The overseas market focuses on the next Fed chair nominee. For silver, it's recommended that holders take profits and non - holders wait for a pullback [2]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be strong but with limited upside due to multiple factors. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today, and medium - term long positions can be held [5][6]. - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and index adjustments, but the long - term bullish foundation remains. Gold and silver are in adjustment in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper prices are expected to be affected by volume and price changes. Zinc, tin, lead, and other metals have different market outlooks based on their fundamentals [9][13][15]. - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a neutral pattern and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices are affected by inventory and demand. Ferroalloys may correct but are supported by cost [26][27][30]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are in a neutral situation and can be observed first. LPG may be supported in the short - term by geopolitical factors. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by supply and demand and cost. Methanol is likely to start an upward - trending phase. PP and PE are in a supply - demand double - reduction pattern. Asphalt may be strong at the opening. Urea has a price increase expectation for the 05 contract. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate [32][34][39]. - Hog prices are expected to be supported in the short - term by consumption and supply changes. Oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Oils may strengthen slightly. Cotton prices may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar prices are expected to open slightly lower. Apples may wait for a pullback to go long. Red dates are expected to be in a low - level shock [65][67][68] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to geopolitical risks such as the US attack on Venezuela and the situation in Iran. The reset of the commodity benchmark index poses a selling risk to gold and silver [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The US military action in Venezuela has led to an increase in global risk aversion. The US dollar may show a short - long and long - short pattern, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [4]. - Stock Index: The post - holiday capital environment supports the stock index, but there are many factors restricting its upside, and it is expected to be strong but with limited space in the short - term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are beneficial to the bond market, and the US military action in Venezuela may also benefit the bond market. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Prices were volatile last week. In the short - term, they will be affected by the US military action in Venezuela and index adjustments. In the long - term, the bullish foundation remains. It's recommended to be vigilant against callback risks in the short - term [9][13]. - Gold & Silver: They are in adjustment in the short - term. Gold should pay attention to the support levels, and silver has adjustment pressure. They are bullish in the long - term [14][15]. - Copper: The external copper price was stable during the holiday. The US - Venezuela event has limited impact on the domestic opening. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [16][18]. - Zinc: The upper space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [19]. - Tin: The high - price negative feedback has come, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but there is a risk of large fluctuations. In the long - term, it has the opportunity to go long on dips [20][22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and it has the value of long - term position building on dips. Polysilicon prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rise [22][24]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17600, with strong support at 16500 [24]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: Steel production has slightly increased, and the market is in a weak shock pattern. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil 2605 is between 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron Ore: The inventory continues to accumulate. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is expected to fluctuate [27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the future price depends on the domestic mine resumption. The coke supply - demand structure may improve if the steel mills' production increases [28][29]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They may correct in the short - term, but the cost provides support below [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to observe first [32][33]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors may provide short - term support. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [34][35]. - PTA - PX: They fluctuate with cost. PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter, and PTA processing fees are expected to rise with limited space [36][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The valuation is under pressure before the macro - narrative is realized [40][43]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending phase, and attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and MTO profit [44][45]. - PP: The supply and demand are both decreasing. The core concern is the scale of January's device maintenance [46][48]. - PE: Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term disturbances. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weakening [48][50]. - Asphalt: The short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances caused by the US - Venezuela conflict [51][52]. - Urea: The 05 contract has a price increase expectation, and it is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [54][55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation, glass has high inventory pressure, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely with weak fundamentals [56][57][59]. - Logs: The price has limited fluctuation space, and it is recommended to observe or use a small - interval grid strategy [60][61][62]. - Propylene: The domestic supply is loose, and the price may be affected by cost in the short - term with limited upward space [63]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The approaching Spring Festival and the decrease in average出栏 weight may support the price in the short - term [65][67]. - Oilseeds: They show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply rhythm of imported soybeans affects the price, and the supply of domestic bean粕 and菜粕 has different situations [68][69][70]. - Oils: They may strengthen slightly after the holiday, and palm oil is relatively strong within the sector [71]. - Cotton: The price may correct in the short - term due to factors such as weak downstream demand, but it has an upward space in the long - term [72][73]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to open slightly lower, suppressed by the decline in the external market [74][75]. - Apples: The consumption slowdown causes short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [76][77]. - Red Dates: They are in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to oversupply [78].