国贸期货黑色金属周报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black metal industry. For each sub - sector: - Steel: Suggests a "wait - and - see" approach [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Recommends a "neutral" stance with a "wait - and - see" trading strategy [67] - Iron Ore: Holds a "neutral" view and advises "wait - and - see" [117] 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is currently in a state of complex dynamics. There are signs of recovery in some aspects such as iron ore and steel production, but also issues like high inventory and weak demand in other areas. The market is influenced by both macro factors (e.g., Venezuela's political conflict) and industry - specific factors (e.g., coal mine production and steel mill profitability). Overall, the market lacks a clear new driving force, and most sectors are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [7][67][117] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Supply: Iron ore production has stopped falling and slightly rebounded, with an increase of 0.85 to 227.43wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is stable compared to the previous week and lower than in 2023. After January, there may be some production resumptions, but the scale is not expected to be large. As the Spring Festival approaches, EAF operations will decline, balancing the total crude steel production [7] - Demand: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure shows weak supply and demand, but the negative pressure on furnace materials from the decline in steel production is weakening. From a market perception perspective, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, with light speculative demand and poor price - transaction sentiment. After January, state - owned palletizing funds may return to the market, which is relatively beneficial for the spot liquidity of the trading segment. In terms of varieties, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly improved, medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable, and the demand for building materials is weaker than the same period [7] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - sales ratios of rebar and wire rods are stable, hot - rolled coils have improved month - on - month, and medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are stable. The inventory of plates is being depleted slowly, and the high - inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils has not been eliminated [7] - Basis/Spread: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly expanded. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 128, with a weekly increase of 6; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 0, with a weekly increase of 13 [7] - Profit: Steel mill profits have slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.1%, with a weekly change of + 0.87% [7] - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7] - Macro and Risk Appetite: The overall commodity atmosphere is good. During the New Year's Day holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated and the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, leading to an improvement in the risk appetite for RMB assets. The political conflict in Venezuela is a concern as it may cause short - term supply restrictions on resource products and impact prices [7] - Investment View: At the macro level, there are few new driving forces and news. It is necessary to focus on whether the Venezuela issue will expand and affect the supply of surrounding resource products. Recently, the performance of commodities has not been bad, and the exchange rate appreciation may bring advantages to RMB asset allocation. At the industrial level, the supply - demand of five major steel products is weak, but the negative pressure on furnace materials is weakening. The inventory - removal pressure of plates is prominent, and there is support at low prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and use a range - trading strategy for single - sided trading. After January, the market funds may be more abundant, which is beneficial for cash - and - carry positions. The cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [7] - Trading Strategy: Single - sided: Use a range - trading approach; Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150; Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry operation of hot - rolled coils [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The supply - demand of steel is weak. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products is 841.02 (+7.41), and the production is 815.18 (+18.36). The steel production has increased, but it is still in the off - season. The inventory is still decreasing, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and the iron ore production has stabilized and gradually rebounded [67] - Coking Coal Supply: After the New Year's Day, the short - term production suspension and reduction of domestic coal mines will end, and the production is expected to rebound rapidly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. The quotation of overseas coal continues to rise, and the internal - external price inversion persists [67] - Coke Supply: This week, the daily average coke production is 109.5 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4). The coking operation is stable, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, leading to a further contraction of coking profit [67] - Inventory: All links of coking coal and coke have accumulated inventory, indicating that downstream procurement is still relatively cautious [67] - Basis/Spread: After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the cost of wet - quenched/dry - quenched warehouse receipts for the 05 contract is 1675/1700, and the cost of port trade quotations converted into warehouse receipts is 1700. The futures price has rebounded and is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1100, and the actual cost is lower considering the difficulty of handling for long - position holders [67] - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.10% (+0.87%), and the coking profit is - 14 (-4) [67] - Summary: Before the holiday, the black metal sector is oscillating. Coking coal and coke are still weak. Although the article in Qiushi magazine has a positive impact on sentiment, the short - term funds are not optimistic about the black metal demand, and the overall market is still expected to oscillate. The market atmosphere has slightly improved, but the downstream is still mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The futures price of coke is oscillating between the third and fourth rounds of price cuts, and it is possible to consider going long at the lower limit of the oscillation range [67] - Trading Strategy: Single - sided: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [67] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The shipping volume this period has decreased by 9.3 tons per day to 504 tons per day compared to the previous period. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia has decreased by 8.5 tons per day, that from Brazil has increased by 15.7 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has decreased by 16.2 tons per day to 84 tons per day. The arrival volume in China has increased by 23.2 tons per day, with a decrease of 12 tons per day from Australia, an increase of 34.1 tons per day from Brazil, and an increase of 1.2 tons per day from non - mainstream sources [117] - Demand: The iron ore production of steel mills has increased by 0.85 tons per day compared to the previous period. The profitability ratio of steel mills continues to fluctuate slightly, increasing by 0.87% to 38.1%. According to the maintenance plan, the iron ore production will slowly rebound in the future, and the iron ore demand will be in a recovery stage in January. The steel production has slightly increased this period. Rebar still maintains a low - production, low - apparent - demand, and slightly inventory - decreasing pattern, while hot - rolled coils continue to reduce inventory after the increase in apparent demand [117] - Inventory: The daily average ore - unloading volume of 47 ports has slightly decreased by 5.94 tons to 328.23 tons, which is still at a relatively high level. However, due to the large arrival pressure, the port inventory has increased by 114.06 tons, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [117] - Profit: Steel mill profits are at a low level [117] - Valuation: The short - term valuation is neutral [117] - Summary: On January 3, the US raided Venezuela. Although Venezuela has high iron ore reserves, its export volume is not high, accounting for about 0.3% of China's imported iron ore. Currently, it has not affected its iron ore export, but there is a possibility of price increase due to sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the high price. The iron ore production is stable, and there are signs of bottoming out. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has clear upward pressure. The overall market fluctuation is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [117] - Investment View: Neutral [117] - Trading Strategy: Single - sided: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [117]